Zheng Cotton Futures Are Down To &Nbsp; High Level Operation Is Difficult To Change.

　　 Zhengzhou cotton futures today, except for the 1011 contract of delivery month, is the limit of the whole line. This is also the first stop of Zheng cotton since the bull market started. For the nature of this limit, we can only make technical adjustments. Short term cotton The pattern of tight supply and demand is difficult to change. Even if Zheng cotton futures are really building their heads, there will still be some repetition in the later stage. Because of the inertia effect, the US cotton may continue to fall today, and Zheng cotton will go down again tomorrow, so it will provide investors with the opportunity to build more orders.

From a technical point of view, the 1105 contract of zhengmian main contract started from 16380 yuan, and rose to the highest 33720 yuan in three months, and the price doubled. In the process of rising, buyers will enter every fall, and no substantive adjustments have been made. After rising to more than 30 thousand yuan, the market has become more and more worried about the high sentiment, the pressure of policy adjustment and the macroeconomic factors such as the deposit reserve ratio. Zheng cotton It is perfectly normal to complete a single adjustment. As for whether or not to build a top stage, we need further observation. The focus of observation is whether there is enough momentum after the upturn.

On the basis of fundamentals, the US Department of Agriculture released the 10 day. Supply and demand of cotton The report confirms that the tight global supply and demand pattern of cotton will continue until around September 2011. The report lowered the cotton production in China and the United States in 2010/11, respectively, at 6 million 530 thousand tons and 4 million 10 thousand tons, compared with 6 million 850 thousand tons and 4 million 100 thousand tons respectively last month, and the end of the two countries' inventory also decreased again, only 2 million 880 thousand tons and 470 thousand tons. The estimated figures for last month were 3 million 200 thousand tons and 590 thousand tons. The output forecast of India, another big cotton producing country, was unchanged from last month, to 5 million 660 thousand tons. According to the forecast, the total cotton output in the 2010/11 year was 25 million 93 thousand tons, 311 thousand tons lower than the previous month, but the global consumption also dropped by 859 thousand tons, to 25 million 435 thousand tons. The end of global cotton inventories in 2010/11 continued to decrease, estimated at 9 million 188 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was 36.12%, the lowest level since 1993/1994, while the two figures in 2009/10 were 9 million 503 thousand tons and 36.84% respectively. As long as there is no major recession in the global economy, the tight global cotton situation in 2010/2011 is a foregone conclusion.

Today, the domestic cotton spot price is tentatively reduced by 200 yuan, to 31300 yuan / ton, and is expected to continue to decline tomorrow. But considering that cotton supply and demand pattern is difficult to change for a short time, the price decline has attracted the spot buyers to buy, and the drop space is relatively limited. Taking into account that the state reserve stocks are at a very low level of 300 thousand tons, there will be an expected purchase and storage in the future, and cotton prices will remain high before the Spring Festival.

In a more subtle case, investors still prefer to buy at a low price. As for investors who want to be short, it is best to wait for the head shape to enter, and it will not be too late.