Cotton Market Will Continue To Moderate Oscillation High

We believe that the demand for cotton is still rising in the international market, while domestic textile enterprises gradually increase purchasing power and the spot prices are stable and high. All these factors support the cotton in regulation. However, considering the temporary price intervention of state policy on agricultural products and the increasingly tight monetary policy, the market is further limited in space.

Therefore, cotton prices will remain strong between 27000 - 30000 yuan / ton in the future, and investors are advised to buy small quantities.

1. There is still a further rebound in the international cotton market in the medium term.

In view of the high unemployment rate in the United States, Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, revealed in the speech earlier this month that it is possible to restart the third round of quantitative easing monetary policy.

Under such circumstances, the US dollar is down again, and the weaker dollar is pushing up commodities.

Affected by this, international crude oil prices once exceeded 90 US dollars / barrel, and the prices of other major agricultural products also gradually increased.

ICE cotton was weakened by the weakening of the US dollar and the uncertainty of India's export, and the price was greatly strengthened. In late December 10th, the USDA report further laid a strong cotton pattern.

While the US cotton rose sharply, the market began to worry about the possible increase in US cotton planting area next year, but this worry was obscured by the tightening of India's export policy.

The market expects us cotton planting area to increase by about 12%. However, it is still necessary to see the price ratio between cotton and other crops, especially the recent increase in corn and soybean prices, which may affect the cultivation of American cotton.

Specific to India, cotton per unit yield has increased year by year, and the potential for increasing production has been greater. However, its policy of restricting exports has not loosened, and its role in easing the contradiction between supply and demand in China's textile industry is rather limited.

Therefore, because of China's booming demand, the international cotton market still has further speculation.

Two, the short-term supply of domestic cotton increased, but

In the short term, due to the early deployment of Sinop cotton and the gradual arrival of imported cotton after November, the supply of spot market is relatively loose, and the processing and sales of local cotton ginning enterprises are active.

In the long run, according to the USDA report released last week, China's cotton output this year is only 6 million 500 thousand tons, corresponding to nearly 11 million tons of consumption demand, and the supply and demand of cotton in the new year is tight.

Throughout the year, cotton supply is expected to tighten again in the late part of the year.

From the game results of market supply and demand sides, as a trading enterprise and a processing enterprise holding cotton, unless there is a shortage of funds, otherwise, there will still be a psychological waiting for the sale of high priced cotton stocks later in the future when the inflation expectation and the acquisition cost of enterprises are raised.

With the consumption of cotton stocks, textile mills still need to replenishment, sooner or later, especially the recent sharp rebound in commodity prices, which worries many enterprises.

But most textile enterprises are still cautious in purchasing, and dare not buy in large quantities.

According to the current market continuity, the result of the game between the two sides is that the textile enterprises have to purchase gradually because of the need for start-up, and sellers may be slightly dominant in the latter market.

Time for cotton picking in the new year

As cotton futures prices rebounded sharply and domestic futures rose, seed cotton purchase prices also showed a steady upward trend since December. At present, the purchase price in Anhui has risen from 11 yuan / kg in late November to 11.4 yuan to 12 yuan / kg, and spot prices are also stable between 27200 and 28000 yuan / ton.

According to our recent survey of cotton growers and processing enterprises, they are generally optimistic about the future market. They believe that spot prices will run for over 25000 yuan / ton for a long time, even if they are affected by supply and demand conflicts, cost factors and inflation. They will not even rule out that they will still rise to 30000 high in the future.

From the registration of warehouse receipts and delivery forecasts in the futures market, it is still in line with the requirements of high-level textile enterprises.

As of December 14th, Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipt 95, delivery forecast 86, and in the same period in the same period of about 1000, which is also reflected from one side of the emergence of the goods market, high-grade cotton is indeed more scarce.

Three, the state's regulation and control of agricultural products will be long-term and normal, and the tightening of capital will restrict the rebound of cotton market.

In December 12th, the central economic work conference closed.

The meeting clearly stated that the regulation of price regulation will be "comprehensively strengthened". The specific measures are mainly economic and legal means, supplemented by necessary administrative means.

Experts believe that the meeting put forward a more prominent position of stabilizing the overall price level, which means that controlling inflation has become the primary task of regulation and control, and cotton as an agricultural product is the key point of regulation.

In December 10th, the central bank raised the deposit reserve rate for the third time in a month, which directly affected the capital supply and demand in the investment market. It also indicated that under the inflation expectation, the state should increase market regulation through active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, so as to ensure the stable operation of prices.

Therefore, from policy understanding, the state's temporary price intervention on agricultural products and agricultural and sideline products will be long-term and normal. Speculative speculation will face great risks, which will directly affect the increase of cotton market.

To sum up, we believe that the current price of cotton market will continue to follow the slight oscillation of the international market under the pressure of policy pressure, the increase of input cost and the support of better demand.

However, we should pay close attention to the procurement situation of textile enterprises in the upstream and downstream industries and the relevant policies of the state on cotton regulation. We believe that domestic cotton will remain strong in the 27000 to 30000 yuan / ton area before the Spring Festival, and it is suggested that the operation should be bought within 27500 yuan / ton.