Davos Releases Macro Modulation And Micro Turn Signal &Nbsp; The Tightening Cycle Is Coming To An End.

The fifth rainy summer in Dalian will be held here. Davos The forum is shrouded in haze.

A series of uncertainties such as the European debt crisis remain unsettled, the United States is heavily indebted, and the development of developed economies has slowed down, making the global economic "two bottom finding" a topic that this forum can not hide. This time, the world is once again turning its attention to China.

But I hope that China will stretch out. Helping hand Europe may be disappointed. China, which holds more than $3 trillion in storage, only cautiously declared "conditional rescue", and stressed that it is necessary to "do well in our own affairs" first.

In his opening speech, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council insisted that China will continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and handle the relationship between the three stable and fast economic development, the readjustment of the economic structure and the management of inflation expectations.

At present, China's macro policy is like walking on the steel wire. It is a risk of endangering stability and tolerating inflation. On the other hand, it is the risk of economic development hindering risks, resolutely increasing interest rates and resisting inflation.

A number of experts including Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Institute of Finance and securities, Renmin University of China, have expressed the same view to the newspaper that the August CPI data indicate that inflation is showing a downward trend, and that the tightening of macroeconomic policy has reached its peak and that monetary policy should enter a moderate state of directional tightness.

Since the first quarter of 2010, the tightening cycle has reached 18 months. Coincidentally, the last round of tightening control cycles ended in 18 months. And from the economic data released last week, Macroscopic The space for regulation is getting smaller and smaller.

In the previous two quarter monetary policy report, the central bank adjusted the continuity and stability of the policy to improve its pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness in order to improve the pertinence, flexibility and foresight of the regulation. The word "continuity and stability" of the policy rhythm is no longer emphasized. This remarkable change seems to imply that there will be some changes in the policy orientation of the central bank.

Delicate August data

It is regarded as the August macro data.

In September 9th, the CPI index released by the Statistics Bureau rose 6.2% from a year ago, down from the 37 month high. Most of the experts in the industry said the fall had a turning point in the year. currency The possibility of tightening policy is decreasing.

However, many experts also said that 6.2% is still at a high level, far higher than the 5% annual target of national tolerance (originally 4%), and the price of food, including food in August, is still rising. Therefore, the fall of CPI in August is also hard to judge.

There are also PMI data to support this view. The purchase price index, which had fallen for 5 consecutive months, rose again, up 0.9 percentage points to 57.2% from the previous month, and 17 of the 20 industries were higher than 50%, of which 7 industries, such as agricultural and sideline food processing and food manufacturing, beverage manufacturing, non-metallic mineral products, and so on, reached more than 60%.

He Yifeng, a senior researcher at Hongyuan securities (14.35, -0.13, -0.90%), said the purchase price index continued to rise, indicating that inflation pressure is still relatively large.

In fact, the central bank is not the first to adopt the "intensive control rhythm of January 1, February 1 plus interest rate", the last one was from January 2007 to June 2008.

At that time, the background was to prevent economic overheating. In the first quarter of 2007, the GDP growth rate reached 14%, and the two quarter increased to 15%. The corresponding CPI also showed a rise of one percentage point a month. Therefore, the central bank adopted intensive regulation for the first time. By the end of June 2008, the growth rate of GDP had dropped to 10.8%, and the inflation level was stable at 7%. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, China's policy began to shift sharply, and the 18 month regulation was also ended.

This regulation cycle is also 18 months. After the launch of the "4 trillion" economic stimulus plan, China's economy took the lead in recovery. By the first quarter of 2010, the GDP growth rate was 11.9%, and the consequent inflation was also positive and accelerated from negative growth. As a result, the central bank has again started intensive control like 2007 to 2008. From June this year, the economic growth rate has dropped to below 10%, and the corresponding intensive control time is 18 months. Unfortunately, CPI is still at a high level.

More coincidentally, the last round of regulatory cycle ended in the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and the current cycle of regulation is catching up with the risk of the two dip in the global economy, which makes the market more relaxed about tightening policies.

Top priority is anti inflation.

When the policy moves towards a crossroads, the position of the central high level is more concerned.

Premier Wen Jiabao's speech at the opening ceremony of Davos clarified that the main goal of the next step is to resist inflation.

This summer, Davos will focus its attention on the quality of growth and control the economic structure. Wen Jiabao pointed out that quality growth should have a certain speed of development, with relatively low inflation rate and sustainable growth. It is not necessary for the economy to rise and fall and the inflation to be controlled within the limits of the people. This is particularly necessary at present, because China is facing a relatively large inflationary pressure.

Wen Jiabao stressed that in view of the outstanding contradictions in the economic operation, we should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy and maintain the continuity and stability of the macro-economy.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with reporters on the venue that the CPI increase is expected to exceed 4% this year. China will strive to complete the expected inflation management target set at the beginning of this year. However, the pressure of imported inflation still exists. In addition, wage increases and the rising cost of production factors such as land and resources also increase the difficulty of managing inflation expectations.

Li Daokui, an expert member of the central bank's monetary policy committee, told reporters during the meeting that "the pressure of moderate inflation will persist for a long time. Therefore, from now on, a more pragmatic and prudent macroeconomic policy should be gradual rather than short-term."

He believes that China's inflation should be improved now, and it will gradually moderate in the second half of this year and even in the first half of next year. Temperate inflation will become more mature, but inflation, which is under great pressure like the first half of this year, will gradually depart in the second half of this year and the first half of next year. So controlling inflation has become a long-term task.

Tightening policy

Inflation is still cloudy, but this time, the central bank may be different.

The central bank has just released data showing that in August, China added RMB 548 billion 500 million yuan in loans, exceeding the 500 billion yuan which had been widely anticipated in the past, and from the perspective of loan structure, SMEs have been given preferential treatment. This is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the market participants who are looking for a relaxed policy. This indicates that the continuous tightening monetary tightening policy since last year has come to a gradual end.

This can also be seen from the recent high-level statements. Wen Jiabao's "current macroeconomic situation and economic work" published in Qiushi magazine is undoubtedly the latest definition of macro policy orientation.

In response to the question of whether there is a "overshoot" in the current macroeconomic policy, Wen Jiabao said in his article: "China's economic growth has undergone an orderly transformation from policy stimulus to self growth, and continues to move towards the expected direction of macroeconomic regulation and control." This shows that the recent fall in specific economic indicators is the result of the active control of the decision-making level, and is expected. Compared with the same article 6 months ago, Premier Wen's worries about the "stagflation" of the external economy were further aggravated.

However, in monetary policy, Wen Jiabao emphasized that "we should pay full attention to the lagging and cumulative effects of monetary policy, provide policy foresight", and avoid early warning to "have a big impact on the next stage of the real economy".

From the above slight vocabulary changes, we can see that the next step is not likely to continue to tighten monetary policy. The central bank's policy guidance in the previous two quarter monetary policy report is even more obvious.

The word "continuity and stability" of the policy rhythm is no longer emphasized. According to the experience of the previous round of regulation, the central bank will change its policy orientation in the next step after the word "continuity and stability" has disappeared.

Liu Huan, vice president of the school of taxation at Central University of Finance and Economics, told our reporter that the space for tightening monetary policy is not large now, but the possibility of similar economic stimulus measures in 2008 is not large.

However, Yang Zhiyong, director and research director of the Institute of Finance and trade of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, looks at the fact that monetary policy and foreign exchange reserve policy actually have some contradictions. Although the monetary policy is tightening trend from the perspective of raising the deposit reserve ratio and the policy of raising interest rates, from the perspective of the foreign exchange management system, the central bank has to increase its liquidity by increasing its foreign exchange reserves, which is also an objective contradiction.

"In fact, the current macroeconomic regulation and control, lack of coordination between departments, and improvement of coordination and adjustment of macro regulation and control system are a long-term problem." Yang Zhiyong said.