Jin Xuewei: Big Bull Market Needs A Big Pattern

Standing in today's stock market, looking back at half a year or a year ago, there is a sense of everyday life. Six months ago, people were concerned about whether China's economy would collapse or when the stock market would fall below 1800 points. Today, people are talking about how many points the stock market will go up. Is the 5000 point a dream? From this perspective, the "5000 points are not dreams", at least in one place, surpass most of the "family" and "teacher". In the period of economic transformation, the traditional "cycle macro" has failed and replaced by "macro transformation."

The words are a bit awkward, and they are explained clearly. In the past 20 years, the macro thinking of stock market research is based on cyclical fluctuations. As the main driving force of the economy remains unchanged, the main driving force of the stock market remains unchanged, so every bull market in the stock market is built on the cyclical prosperity of the macro-economy. From the perspective of macro-economic cyclical prosperity, we should consider the stock market and judge the bull and bear in the stock market.

In the transition period, such macro thinking is no longer applicable. Because the traditional economic growth momentum has declined, the slowdown in economic growth has become a basic trend. The driving force of the rise of the stock market will come from several aspects: the drop in risk-free interest rate and the large surplus of social capital. In the boom stage, most of these funds will be used in the physical field. In the initial stage of economic prosperity and recession, there will be no excess capital invested in the stock market because a lot of real economy needs a lot of money to save lives. Once this stage is passed, these funds will begin to look for ways to generate profits, and then the stock market will become the best place. Recall a series of articles that we have written over the past year, which is about these views. In my words at that time, industrial capital should take into account the development issue after passing through the survival of the stock market, and the stock market will see "declining prosperity" - accompanied by the decline in economic growth.

The development of the situation is always faster than people expect. Last Wednesday evening, when I wrote this column, I heard the sound of the market returning to the 2200 point. What I stressed is that it is impossible to return to the 2200 point. However, last Friday's news of a rate cut completely changed the overall situation. The original target of 2730 to 2750 was within reach. Further raising the expected target of the current market is already on the agenda.

What is bull market? Bull market is a complete denial of bear market. Such negation has two quantifiable and trusted goals.

First, erase the last part of bear market. To be clear, it is to erase all the C in the ABC down. As the 6124 point adjusted C wave top is 3478 points, the total loss of land after the recovery of 3478 points is the main goal of the first wave in the bull market.

The two is relatively weak. Although "top on top" is the basic law of bull market, in some cases, the market will turn back first. For example, 2245 bear market in 2001, the C wave top is 1783 points, but in June 2006 to 1757 o'clock, there was a two month stalemate, which became the first month of the bull market line back. Especially when the original head is a complex multiple structure, this situation is more likely to occur. At this point, we need to make an average calculation of the whole head. Since the 3478 point head is a complex multiple structure, it has successively produced 3478 points, 3361 points, 3186 points and 3067 points 4 high points. Therefore, the average calculation result is 3273 points.

Coincidentally, 6124 points, 1664 points, 3478 points, 1849 points, this group of bear market cycle 4 points, an average of 3278 points, and the above result is only 5 points. Therefore, the 3270 point is a price we should remember. As for the higher position, it is better to say it later. One old Jin does not have the kind of extreme poverty and eight wastes. The two guess is right.

It is very appropriate to use the famous quotes in Chinese painting on the stock market. Analysis of the market, the fine place to be thin, to be in place, the rough place must be thick. Rough, not careless, but pattern or gas. Those who have a big pattern can have great wisdom and be able to calm down their minds. In the current stock market, there are two points to remember in the big picture.

This is a bull market. It is neither a rebound nor a structural bull market, but a bull market. What is the biggest difference between a bull market and a structured bull market? From the beginning to the end, there will be only one type of stock that can rise, and the rest of the stock can only run away, or even cry to the corner. The former is that all stocks will turn, even if they do not rise, they are only phased, or the time is not yet ripe, and there is still no catalyst.

Two days ago, I drank with some friends and talked about the bull market index. It is generally felt that bull market surpass index is more difficult than bear market. The reason is that there are many opportunities in the bull market. There are many temptations. Stocks are very strong. It often temptations or pushes us to adjust positions. The result of adjusting and transferring is often increased by time and cost. Only one thing to remember: in a bull market, the biggest increase of every stock will exceed the biggest increase in index, which will make us avoid this temptation. "Weak water three thousand, I only take a drink." This is what most people do. bull market The best way.

As the saying goes, how big the pot is and how big the pie can be. Recently, many investors have seen that financial and real estate stocks have gone up very well, believing that their hearts are all tickled or even annoyed. In particular, when we talked about price driving the week before, we made special examples of financial stocks. But I don't think that's necessary. We should remember what the biggest pot of China's economy is now. It is the reform of state-owned enterprises and the transformation of economy. shore up shares The purpose of the market is not to keep everyone in the traditional way. Investment mode Beat around the bush. The second biggest reform is to promote economic transformation and serve state-owned enterprises. With this in mind, you can find new layout directions and goals, and know that some of the new industry stocks have been adjusted only because they have increased too much in the past two years and need to make way for other stocks.

From 1849 to 2270, there was a long time out of gear, which is 1/4 from 1849 to 3478. There was a clear callback in the 2391 round, which is 1/3 from 1849 to 3478. In view of this, although the market has been very strong, it has not yet been separated from the technical rules. According to the general rule, the next node should be 1/2, that is, 2663 points, but the deviation rate of 1/2 node has always been very large, and the maximum width can reach 0.55. If there is a wide concussion between the 2663 and 2750 points next week, we should not be surprised. Of course, we should not be afraid. Now the market, the market back to block, for some stocks is just a good thing.