Gu Mingde: Why Is Interest Rate Cut Not Equal To Policy Easing?

　　 Central Bank In response to the significance of the interest rate cut, the chief executive stressed that interest rate cuts were not equal to monetary policy change, and stable monetary policy orientation remained unchanged. This is the authoritative answer. Why should the various departments of the State Council make frequent moves, fine-tuning, directional and partial regulation, we still need to emphasize that this does not mean that policy is loose? I understand that the key is the overall judgement of the current economic growth rate and the trend of house prices. At present, the GDP growth rate in the first three quarters and the price ratio of the local housing prices and the year-on-year prices are, if judged to be "reasonable intervals", then there is no need to change the policy. If we compare the current economic situation with the winter of 2008 and think that China will have a serious recession and the edge of crisis, of course, we need a sharp turn in monetary policy.

The problem is Standard of measurement What is the standard of a country's reasonable economic growth rate? It is not the rate of growth itself, but the employment status, property level, residents' income and enterprise tax status under this growth rate. Among them, the most important thing is the employment index. The United States and other western countries even regard employment indicators as the primary reference index of monetary policy.

Therefore, it is also the growth rate of about GDP7%. In the winter of 2008, a large number of migrant workers returned home and the employment situation deteriorated, thus accelerating the shift of monetary policy at that time. Today, although the growth rate of GDP is down, there is no large-scale return of migrant workers in the whole country. The national employment index has been completed ahead of schedule, the unemployment rate is stable, and residents, enterprise income and other indicators are stable. This shows that the potential of economic growth has changed. Today's 7% growth rate has reached the normal level that various resources can provide. Therefore, it is entirely reasonable for the central bank to judge the general situation of the economy in a reasonable range. This is the main reason why monetary policy is not changing at present.

Of course, monetary policy does not change without taking positive measures to deal with new situations, new problems and new difficulties. At present, the difficulty of financing and financing is a prominent problem. The interest rate marketization reform also needs to move forward. The interest rate cut will alleviate the expensive problem of corporate finance, and on the other hand, it will promote the marketization of interest rates. As to whether this is loose, it is beneficial to the interest rate reduction itself. financing Borrowing is beneficial to the money multiplier effect and is conducive to the expansion of the money supply.

Therefore, from this perspective, the objective is a loose monetary policy effect. But this easing is within the framework of a prudent monetary policy. If the Central Bank continues to directly expand the supply of money by means of quantitative means, such as lowering the reserve ratio, after the price type measures, it will mean the transformation of the framework of monetary policy. If so, China's macroeconomic judgment should also change. At present, we need to wait for the next step in the new data of economy, finance and housing prices. It is too early to cut interest rates and usher in a rate cut cycle.