Exchange Market Interpretation: Is It A Good Opportunity To Buy Back?

The dollar rose across the board this week as investors expected the fed to raise interest rates next month while other central banks continued to release more relaxed monetary policy signals.

At the end of New York's foreign exchange market, the US dollar rose 0.8% against the euro, to 1 euros to 1.0645 dollars.

The US dollar rose 1.2% against the euro this week.

The Wall Street journal dollar index rose 0.3% to 90.31, rising 0.2% this week, close to 13 years high.

The dollar continued to rise as investors firmly believed that the Federal Reserve would raise its short-term benchmark interest rate near zero at the 15-16 meeting in December.

The dollar is stronger against the euro as the European Central Bank President, Delagi (Mario Draghi), hints that the central bank will further relax policies to boost inflation in the euro zone.

Delagi reiterated on Friday that the central bank is ready to use all available options at its earliest meeting in December 3rd, including extending or expanding the central bank's asset purchase plan and possibly further reducing euro zone deposit rates.

In a study released Friday, Nomura predicted that the US dollar would be parity with the euro by 2016.

US dollar: next week, there will be no heavy economic data in the US market. Because the holiday season is approaching, the market trend is expected to be relatively calm.

The US dollar is expected to shrink, but the margin will not be too large. With the approaching December policy meeting, the US dollar trend is still more biased, especially against the Japanese yen and the Norway kronor.

Euro: the initial PMI value of manufacturing next November will not have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, especially if the ECB's policy plan does not seem to respond to the improvement of the economic outlook for the time being.

Pound: the Bank of England's interest rate hike is not expected to rise again. The space for sterling will be limited. The three quarter GDP data released next week are not expected to change the current situation.

US dollar: because there is no heavy data next week, the US dollar will continue to bear the pressure of profit making.

Nevertheless, the dollar's fall is still an opportunity for investors to buy.

The three quarter GDP correction next week will not change the Fed's interest rate hikes, no matter how good or bad it is.

Yen: weak inflation data or support for further expansion of BOJ by Japan's central bank to achieve a predetermined inflation target.

Spot gold: the Fed's rate hike is expected to be limited, and gold prices or certain support can be achieved to achieve a moderate rebound.

CFTC:11 on 17 June, the weekly net dollar rose to its highest level in 8 months.

According to the data released by the CFTC on Friday (November 20th), investors' holdings of US dollar long bets rose to the highest level in 8 months.

Data show that as of November 17th, the dollar rose to $41 billion 640 million in net weekly positions, compared with $33 billion 680 million a week earlier, the highest level since the end of 3.

This week, investors held a net long position in the US dollar for fourth consecutive weeks.

So far,

It has risen more than 10% during the year, as sentiment rose sharply with us economic data and Fed officials' comments on interest rate increases.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange FedWatch, the trend of interest rate futures shows that the rate of increase in December rose to 74%.

The federal funds futures curve shows that interest rates will rise two times in 2016, and there will be a 3 increase in interest rates.

In other currencies, the euro's net head position rose to 164177 hands, after a week of 142939 hands and a net clearance to 5 month highs.

The total position of Chicago dollar in the International Monetary Market is based on its six main currencies: Japanese yen, euro, pound, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

To calculate.

The strength of the US dollar has been fully reflected in the company's performance, and the US dollar is likely to go further in the future.

Goldman Sachs estimates that the US dollar will soon be equivalent to the euro, which currently stands at 1 euros to 1.07 dollars.

Therefore, the company's profit expectations may also be frustrated in the fourth quarter, and indeed it is.

According to FactSet data, analysts expect the fourth quarter profit of the S & P 500 index company to fall by 3.7% compared with the same period last year.

In September 30th, analysts expected a 0.4% drop in profits in the fourth quarter.

In fact, the strength of the US dollar has always put pressure on the market.

Mike ORourke of JonesTrading, a brokerage firm, said that since 2000, the S & P 500 index has risen 2.6% in the year of the US dollar rising, rising 11.6% on average in the low US dollar year.

The trend of strength may be too obvious, but sometimes we should bet on this obvious trend.

The overall profit level of the S & P 500 index company in the third quarter was poor, and the strength of the US dollar was the main reason.

After winning the gamble, you may not be able to resist making profits.

But if the bet is on the US dollar, given its continued strength, doubling the bet seems to be a good choice.

As the US quarter of the third quarter draws to a close, the overall profit margin of the S & P 500 index company is bound to decline again, which marks the first consecutive two quarters of decline since 2009.

The strength of the US dollar is the main reason, especially considering that the multinational companies that are most overseas are also experiencing the most serious impact.

The exchange rate of the US dollar against its main trading partner is close to its highest level in 13 years.

And because the Fed's interest rate rises next month, the US dollar rally may continue.

So don't expect the trend of the recent earnings season to change very quickly.

By the end of 2016 and abroad, companies with low overseas exposure will continue to perform well.

So far this year, the S & P 500 index is basically flat, but the performance of stocks is vastly different.

Among them, non essential consumer stocks performed best, up 12%.

If you know that overseas income accounts for only 40% of the total sales of these shares, this score should be nothing to be surprised about.

Data from S&P Dow Jones Indices show that the non essential consumer stocks are the lowest in the 10 stocks of the S & P 500 index.

The share of overseas sales of the necessary consumer stocks that also rose this year is also very low.