The U.S. Oil Market Faces Uncertainty As The U.S. Election Enters The Final Stage, And There Are Divergent Trends

According to the weekly financial market survey published by fx168 on November 1, most analysts and traders have different opinions on the prospect of crude oil in the new week, with the proportion of short and bullish accounting for 40% and consolidation accounting for 20%.

Last week, US WTI crude oil fell $4.06 to close at $35.79/barrel, down 10.19% for the week. Brent crude oil futures fell $4.13 to $37.94/barrel, down 9.82% for the week. At the same time, the two big data also hit a 5-month low.

Recently, the U.S. presidential election day has entered the last weekend. It is reported that the opinion poll thinks Biden has a 65% chance of winning. According to the analysis, the Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden promised that if elected, he will carry out a "clean energy revolution". Biden's clean energy "revolution" will challenge the fossil fuel industry, which will hit the prospects of the crude oil market. In terms of its overall probability of 35% to trump's re-election, the market thinks it is more likely that trump will be re elected. This week, 70% of the bets are on trump. In short, the crude oil market is facing uncertainty before the US election, and the final direction will be determined after the election.

At present, there is a big outbreak of new crown pneumonia in the United States. On October 30, more than 99000 new cases were added in a single day in the United States, breaking a global record. Many enterprises have been devastated by the epidemic. According to incomplete statistics, at least 500 large-scale enterprises in the United States have declared bankruptcy. According to foreign media, ExxonMobil, the largest oil giant in the United States, will cut 15% of its employees worldwide in the next two years, which is an unprecedented layoff action of the largest oil exploration company in North America. According to incomplete statistics, at least 12 European countries, including Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, Britain (England), Austria, Greece, the Netherlands and Poland, have declared "blockade" orders to curb the epidemic.

Libya said crude oil production will increase to 1 million barrels / day next month, far faster than market expectations, making it difficult for the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to evaluate the crude oil production restriction agreement. The OPEC + alliance formed by OPEC and its allies such as Russia is scheduled to hold policy meetings on November 30 and December 1. Before that, under the pressure of the epidemic situation, the overall tone of international oil prices was dominated by the downward trend.

In addition, when the winter season begins in North America, the trading time (gold and silver, US oil, stock market, etc.) and economic data release time of the United States and Canada will be one hour later than the summer time. The US EIA crude oil inventory data will be released at 23:30 next Wednesday (November 4), the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution will be announced at 03:00 next Friday (November 6), and the US October non farm report will be released next month It will be announced at 21:30 on Friday.