As Of The End Of April, The Price Of Acrylonitrile Remained Stable, And The Market Sentiment Was Mainly Wait-And-See

As of April 29, 2021, the domestic reference price of acrylonitrile remained at 14766.67 yuan / ton, down 2.21% compared with the price of the previous working day, flat with the beginning of the week and 9.78% lower than March 29.

2、 Market analysis

From the middle of February 2021, the price of acrylonitrile continued to rise due to the rising cost of raw materials and the imbalance between supply and demand. On March 10, the price of acrylonitrile rose to 16500 yuan / ton, the highest price in recent five years. After March, the price of acrylonitrile began to fall in the last ten days due to the fall of upstream raw material prices, and the market reference price was lowered to about 16300 yuan / ton. In April, the reference price of acrylonitrile market continued to decline. Last week, the reference price of acrylonitrile continued to fall slightly. However, the offer of middlemen remained firm and kept a wait-and-see attitude. At the beginning of this week, the domestic market reference price of acrylonitrile fell to 14500 yuan / T and remained stable until the end of April; The upstream manufacturers did not notice the change of equipment maintenance capacity, the quotation of middlemen remained stable, the domestic market fundamentals did not change significantly, and the transaction was normal. In addition, this week will usher in a small long may day holiday, downstream users have the willingness to stock up, which may slightly improve the transaction atmosphere. However, the middlemen are more cautious and wait-and-see on the price of acrylic acid, the price rise motivation is insufficient, and the market bearish sentiment is strong, and the trading volume is still limited.

upper reaches:

According to the price chart of the business agency, the price of propylene dropped sharply in the second half of March and recovered at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, and began to stabilize on the 23rd. The external market of propylene in the United States decreased significantly again on April 20. The Asian propylene price has often increased slightly recently, which has a certain impact on the propylene market. At present, there is no pressure in the propylene market, and some units are still under maintenance. The supply of goods in Shandong is a little tight.

Downstream:

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of nitrile rubber was 21166 yuan / ton on the 28th, down 1.85% from the previous day and 8.59% from the beginning of April. The demand for raw materials is weak and the demand for NBR is expected to continue to be weak in the later stage. The commodity index of polyacrylamide on April 28 was 94.20, which was 12.07% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 13.64% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020（ Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now) the market is stable in the short term, and the demand still needs to be pulled in the medium and long term.

3. Future forecast:

At present, the raw material propylene is running in a weak position, and the downstream nitrile rubber is slightly lower, and the start-up rate is low, so the performance is general, and there is resistance to the price of acrylonitrile; Polyacrylamide market small shock, the end of the month inventory is relatively sufficient, the demand is not warm. Acrylonitrile analysts of the business agency believe that the supply and demand side of the acrylonitrile market in the aftermarket is not enough, and the driving force for price rise is weak. It is expected that the market will be in full swing in the short term. The market shock is small and the direction is not easy to grasp. It is necessary to be cautious and wait-and-see sentiment increases, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance for the specific trend.