Strong Market Demand Drives High Prosperity Of The Whole Industry Chain

It is expected that this year's sustained high prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain in the interim report period to hand over a brilliant report card.

According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, as of August 31, of the 85 semiconductor companies in a share market, 9 companies achieved multiple growth in revenue scale, and 74 achieved positive growth in net profit; 81 made profits and only 4 lost money. The average growth rate of operating revenue of 85 semiconductor companies in the first half of the year was 73.53%; The average year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company reached 205.49%.

From the perspective of the reasons, "strong market demand", "order increase", "order saturation" become the high-frequency words to explain the performance growth. From the perspective of industrial chain segmentation, the average growth rate of net profit of 10 sealing and testing companies is the highest, more than 2 times.

Many institutional analysts believe that the performance of the semiconductor industry is in line with expectations, with strong certainty of high growth in the whole year“ Judging from the situation of Q2 single quarter, both continue the high growth trend of Q1, and some of them exceed the market expectation. Judging from the high prospect of the whole industry, the annual performance of semiconductor companies in all sectors is expected to increase significantly. " Wang Fang, chief analyst of Minsheng securities electronics, said.

It is expected that this year's sustained high prosperity of the semiconductor industry chain in the interim report period to hand over a brilliant report card. Xinhua News Agency

Industrial chain in full bloom

According to the statistics of the 21st century economic report, among the 85 semiconductor industry companies that have published the China Daily News, more than 90% of the operating revenue has achieved a positive growth year on year, and more than half of them have doubled their net profits, and there are many super growth stocks that have increased more than 10 times.

Among them, ZTE (000063. SZ) has the highest operating income, with a revenue of 53.071 billion yuan in the first half of 2021; The lowest one is Zhuoyi information (688258. SH), with revenue less than 100 million yuan.

SMIC International (688981. SH) had the highest net profit, with a net profit of 5.241 billion yuan; The lowest net profit was cambrian-u (688256. SH), with a loss of 392 million yuan.

In terms of growth, Beijing Junzheng (300223. SZ) achieved the first growth rate of revenue and net profit at the same time, which were 558.46% and 2994.80% respectively; However, the revenue growth rate of LanChi Technology (688008. SH) was the lowest, falling by 33.51%; Cambrian-u (688256. SH) had the lowest net profit growth rate of - 94.00%.

Among them, LanChi technology and Cambrian are both star enterprises of the science and technology innovation board. Why did the performance decline?

The explanation of LanChi technology is that customer demand has decreased compared with the same period last year; At the same time, DDR4 memory interface chip has entered the late stage of product life cycle, resulting in the product price of DDR4 memory interface chip decreased compared with the same period last year. The explanation of the performance loss in Cambrian is that it still belongs to the stage of continuous large-scale R & D investment.

Leaving aside the few companies with declining performance, the semiconductor industry still showed a full blossom in the first half of the year.

Take wafer manufacturing, semiconductor materials, semiconductor equipment, semiconductor packaging and testing, which are widely concerned by the market, as an example, and all of them are on the rise.

According to the reporter's calculation, the field of wafer manufacturing is in the lead, with an average revenue of 7.329 billion yuan and an average net profit of 1.019 billion yuan in the first half of the year, far exceeding those of the other three links. The average growth rate of net profit over the same period of last year has reached 452.79%. In other words, the average net profit of wafer companies is 5.5 times that of the same period last year.

In the first half of the year, the semiconductor packaging and testing field, which was basically full of production and sales, ranked the second among the four links in terms of revenue, net profit and year-on-year growth rate of net profit. The average revenue and net profit were 4.788 billion yuan and 376 million yuan respectively; The average growth rates of the two were 58.97% and 215.32%, respectively. In terms of individual stock performance, Changdian Technology (600584. SH), as the leader of the mainland sealing and testing plant, achieved the highest revenue and net profit in the whole industry.

It is worth mentioning that Fuman Electronics (300671. SZ) has achieved business growth rate of 239.31% and net profit growth rate of 1190.55%, which is far better than that of its peers.

The average revenue of semiconductor equipment field is 2.236 billion yuan, and the average growth rate of revenue is 108.40%; The average net profit was 239 million yuan, with an average increase of 187.43%.

Only one enterprise in this field has a negative net profit, that is, China Great Wall (000066. SZ), and its net profit attributable to its parent company is - 8305 million yuan. However, according to its statement, due to the change in the fair value of the trading financial assets, the income from the changes in the fair value of the stocks, the increase in R & D investment, and the impact of the loss in the first quarter, the rise in the cost of raw materials and the delay in product delivery led to unrealized profits. Revenue increased in the second quarter and has turned losses into profits.

The average revenue and net profit of semiconductor materials industry are 2.137 billion yuan and 209 million yuan respectively; The average growth rates of the two were 54.36% and 199.37% respectively.

The plate vibrated repeatedly

For the hyped secondary market, the performance of the semiconductor industry in the second half of the year has a direct impact on the trend of relevant stocks.

At present, people in the industry and institutions generally believe that the order growth and performance fulfillment of the semiconductor industry chain are deterministic events while the core shortage is still continuing.

This can be seen from the companies that have announced their third quarter earnings forecasts. Jacques Technology (002409. SZ) expects to achieve a net profit of about 385 million yuan - 405 million yuan in the first three quarters, with a change range of 11.89% - 17.70%. The company said that with the gradual control of the epidemic situation, the international and domestic market demand gradually warmed up, resulting in a substantial increase in income.

A particularly prominent situation is that the price rise is still spreading.

TSMC has announced a sudden price increase recently. The company will start to raise the price of wafer foundry in the first quarter of 2022. The price of 7Nm chip will rise by 10%, and the OEM price of 16nm process chip will increase by 10% - 20%.

Chip foundry giant SMIC's previous statement also has the significance of "wind vane".

At the recent performance exchange meeting, Zhao Haijun, the joint chief executive officer, said that at present, the capacity expansion and market delivery of semiconductor manufacturers are relatively slow, and the supply and demand situation will last at least until the first half of 2022. Due to the epidemic situation and international uncertainty and other factors, it is expected that prices in the third and fourth quarters will continue to rise.

Jingfeng Mingyuan (688368. SH), which specializes in LED lighting driver chips, also said the company completed the third quarter price adjustment in July.

To sum up, the shortage of upstream production capacity, the continuous downstream demand, and the superposition of price rising factors make the annual performance of the semiconductor industry increase almost certain.

But uncertainty remains. From the recent market performance, the trend of semiconductor is a little unpredictable. In August, the plate often appeared signs of correction, some investors jokingly called semiconductor with "slag man" physique. Just on August 31, the semiconductor sector, which is the strongest track for technology stocks, fell sharply, with the plate falling by more than 2%. Individual stocks now fell to a stop. Zhaoyi innovation, Li'ang micro and Hua microelectronics fell by more than 9%.

On the news surface, recently, including Zhaoyi innovation, Weil shares, a number of chip stocks, including the shareholder reduction plan.

"From the perspective of lengthening dimension, the rise of chip plate this year has been very high, and it is normal to drop down. Some investors are making profits and leaving the market." A private equity source in Shanghai said.

Is it market adjustment or divergence?

It is worth pondering that Zhao Haijun predicts that SMIC's sales in the third quarter can't continue to grow substantially. The growth of revenue in the second quarter was affected by the improvement of production capacity and utilization rate, customer's promotion of shipment and price rise, but the related factors are difficult to sustain, especially the situation of customers' pulling shipment. Therefore, it is expected that the sales revenue in the third quarter will increase by 2% - 4% month on month.

Although for SMIC, compared with the same period last year, the growth of 2% - 4% in the third quarter has been very considerable, but it also releases a signal that subtle changes are taking place in the industry.

Earlier, the General Administration of market supervision put on file an investigation into car chip distribution enterprises suspected of driving up prices. In the next step, the General Administration of market supervision will continue to pay attention to the price order of important commodities such as chips, further strengthen the supervision and law enforcement, and strictly investigate and punish illegal acts such as hoarding and hoarding, bid up prices and collusion in price increases.

Societe Generale Securities said that after the Ministry of industry and information technology, the General Administration of market supervision took another step to promote the restoration of chip market price order and promote the healthy development of the chip industry. With the recovery of chip capacity supply, it is expected that chip supply will gradually return to normal in the third quarter.

At the same time, there are also reports that a large number of demand caused by the global chip shortage has begun to decline, and the industry cycle of chips in some subdivision fields has changed from "medium" to "late" for the first time since 2019.

From the perspective of downstream demand, a report recently released by IDC shows that in the second quarter of 2021, China's smartphone market will ship about 78.1 million units, down 11% from the same period last year. If mobile phone shipments fall, the demand outlook for chips will be questioned.

The answer may only be found in the third quarter.