Readjustment Of Investment In Textile And Garment Retail Enterprises

Investment advice:

3/4 month's orders will exceed the market expectations, the current market sales situation is normal, we believe that 8/9 month orders will still be possible to continue the first half of the development trend; the domestic textile and garment retail market gradually recovered, Future Ltd performance may be 20 or 30% (including the newspaper), or even higher speed growth;

At present, the market is obviously better than the second half of 08 years, and most enterprises adopt prudent expansion strategy, similar to that in the middle of 08 years.

We believe that the textile and garment retail enterprises have been at the time when the market thought that the upper limit of reasonable valuation should be bought and held, unless the company's management strategy was not in line with the prevailing market conditions.

Recommended portfolio: still recommends focus.

Industry view: the industry continued to recover in May before 2010:

Before May, the revenue reached 15922 billion yuan and the total profit was 70 billion 10 million yuan, up 26.3% and 64%, respectively, compared with the previous 27.5% in February. The growth rate of domestic textile and garment retail remained at a high level. The total volume of wholesale and retail clothing and textiles in the previous May increased by 23.1%, close to the highest level in history, and the growth rate was the same as that in the previous February. The export of textiles, clothing, textiles and clothing, respectively, was 680.6, 293 and 38 billion 700 million dollars respectively, and the growth rates were 38 billion 700 million, 38 billion 700 million and 293 respectively.

The monthly cotton price is likely to turn downward, while the textile industry chain stores a large number of cotton, and cotton prices fall, and the adverse impact of actual cotton prices on cotton industry is far higher than that of cotton prices. We still maintain the expected industrial efficiency in 2010. That is to say, the textile and garment retail industry will continue to maintain a higher growth rate of about 20%. As the recovery of the European and American economies is slow, the growth rate of exports will be in the single digit figure. The price of raw materials will be inverted V shape in the whole year, and the price of raw materials will rise sharply, which will seriously affect the growth of the enterprises and industries, and the unfavorable factors such as the rising labor costs and the appreciation of the renminbi. The fluctuation of cotton price depends on the game between data, policy and demand. We think 7-8

We have always believed that the best time to intervene in raw materials with strong cycle is the traditional off-season, and textile raw material investment opportunities may need to arrive in the off-season after November.

Risk warning: the high rent will affect the store expansion of textile and garment retail enterprises. The main risk of textile and garment retail business lies in the macro-economic development. If the macro-economy is to explore the bottom for two times, the consumption will inevitably be affected.