"Thousand Years Of Extreme Cold" For Fear Of Speculation

　　 In the near future, accompanied by nationwide cooling and " Millennium Arctic "Speculation is rampant. Down Jackets Retail prices have generally risen by more than 30%. Stimulated by this news, the share price of the brand clothing company and the down material company rose yesterday (October 25th) on the A share market.

Huaying agriculture [20.67 2.99%]: Duck feather industry Accounting is too small.

Recently, a consumer told the daily economic news reporter, "in the past, only 700~800 yuan was required to buy a down jacket, but now there is no more than 1000 yuan to buy it at all." Some of them are even priced at 2000 yuan.

In fact, the price rise of the down jacket is traced back to the "gimmick cold" climate gimmick. It has been reported that "La Nina" disrupts warm current activities, and in Europe, or in a thousand years of cold winter, China also needs to be alert to low-temperature weather. The rapid spread of extreme cold has prompted the soaring prices of duck down and down garments. According to reports, the price of duck down from last year's nearly 100 thousand yuan per ton to 300 thousand yuan / ton, and the retail price of down garment is more than 30%. According to the reporter, Huaying agriculture (002321, closing price of 20.67 yuan) is the domestic duck production leader, its main product duck feather is one of the upper raw materials of down jacket.

Yesterday, the "daily economic news" reporter called Hua Ying agriculture, company secretaries official said that the price of duck hair rose from the lowest 7000~8000 per ton last year to the current 20 thousand yuan, an average increase of 3 times. During the year, the price of eiderdown has been very high, but the company did not carry out inventory. It is worth noting that although the increase in the price of ducks has contributed to the performance or contribution, the proportion of the business in the company's total revenue is too small, and the excessive price increase may lead to the promotion of the main business frozen duck instead of lowering the price. Therefore, it is difficult to judge the impact of the eiderdown on the company's performance.

Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the income of Hua Ying agriculture's duck feather was 29 million 365 thousand and 700 yuan, accounting for 5% of the main business income of the company, and the income of frozen duck products was 297 million 701 thousand and 500 yuan, accounting for 52.45% of the main business income of the company.

Researcher: fear of speculation

In addition, the brand clothing stocks rose strongly yesterday, the [29.97 3.77%] (002269, closing price 29.97 yuan), the wedding bird [26.90 8.34%] (002154, closing price 26.90 yuan) and the seven wolves [33.30 2.40%] (002029, closing price 33.30 yuan) average increase of 4.8%.

The seven wolves securities affairs representative told reporters yesterday that the company did not sell down clothing, but usually half a year ahead of time inventory to meet the cost increase. The retail price of spring and summer wear has been preliminarily determined next year, and is expected to rise by more than 10% over the same period. Xie Haijing, a representative of the company, told reporters that there were some down coats in the winter clothing, but the proportion was not large. Reporters noted that the United States and costumes last December to the end of January this year to carry out promotional activities "down storm", although this part of the revenue exceeded expectations, but due to the excessive discount rate, resulting in a quarterly gross margin lower. Unfortunately, the "daily economic news" yesterday called the US bond card Xu Bin mobile phone, which is now in the three quarterly silence period, it is not easy to interview.

A researcher who does not want to be named thinks that the popularity of the brand clothing stocks on Monday is mainly a restorative market, and the funds may be heavily hyped by the concept of extremely cold years. There are two problems that will limit the contribution of the down price to the company's performance: first, whether the retail price can fully cover the cost increase; and two, whether the company has already reserved enough raw materials ahead of time, if not, it will directly affect the later cost.