The Differential Reserve Table Will Be Issued Under The &Nbsp; The Deposit War Will Continue.

　 This year's credit and dynamic deposit reserve ratio are the swords on the top. Commercial banks have to choose between paying differential deposit reserves and loans.

A number of bank sources revealed that the bank has made preliminary calculations based on the calculation method of the differential reserve ratio issued by the central bank.

Be based on Negotiable securities The company's analysts' information on banks shows that the bank expects its loan growth in 2011 to be around 14%, which is a way to avoid being "differentiated". In other words, if more than 14%, the Bank of China may have to pay differential deposit reserve, while Huaxia Bank is 16%.

However, the data were not confirmed by China Merchants Bank and Huaxia. "Banks must find a balance between lending speed and capital adequacy ratio." A share line capital department believes.

The policy of differential deposit reserve rate will prompt banks to further raise capital. Sufficiency rate 。 Some bankers believe that the innovation of financing tools is a key to solve the capital replenishment of commercial banks. For example, COCO debt, a debt instrument with capital attributes, is worth studying by regulatory authorities.

　　 lending "Degree"

How to find a balance between loan growth and differential reserve ratio has become a difficult decision for banks at present.

According to the securities company's survey of China Merchants Bank, the regulatory level has not yet determined whether to calculate the capital adequacy ratio according to Basel II or Basel III. However, according to the regulatory requirements of Basel III, capital will consist of three parts: first, the lowest level of capital should not be less than 8%, followed by the adequacy ratio of systemically important banks attached to 0~4%. As for systemically important banks, regulators will choose a medium-sized bank as a benchmark and compare the scale with other banks.

However, the funds Department of the joint-stock banks said that commercial banks should avoid the differential reserve ratio. The only way is to reduce loans, raise capital adequacy level and improve the level of stability.

In fact, the feedback information of China Merchants Bank is whether choosing "difference" depends not only on cost but also on business strategy. The bank's credit growth will slow down significantly this year, and 14% will be positioned as a basically reasonable loan growth rate.

At the same time, China Merchants Bank also revealed that this year's policy level is still controlling loan and real estate, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and agriculture, rural areas and farmers. At present, the proportion of SME loans increased by 1 percentage points a year.

"If we estimate the size of the bank's loans last year, the growth rate of 14% means that the number of China Merchants Bank has increased by nearly 200 billion. An analysis of a joint-stock bank.

And a securities analyst believes that if the overall credit growth rate of 14%-15% as a whole, the overall credit increments will reach 7-7.5 trillion this year, which will be tolerated by all parties.

In addition, to improve the capital adequacy ratio, China Merchants Bank believes that from the dynamic trend of consumption, there is still a gap in capital, and the innovation of financing tools is a key to solve capital replenishment. For example, COCO debt can be issued. This is a debt instrument with capital attributes, which is worth studying by regulators.

Minsheng Bank also recently said at an analyst conference that it would not abandon loans for the sake of avoiding differential reserves.

"If there is still room for growth in loans, banks will choose to increase loans, even if some of the differential reserves are paid." Minsheng Bank stakeholders stressed that banks will seek a "degree" between the two. For example, if the growth rate of new loans exceeds 20%, under the new dynamic differential reserve ratio mechanism, new loans will suffer negative benefits, so the loan growth rate will be appropriately slowed down.

Deposit wars will continue {page_break}

It is an indisputable fact that credit lines have tightened significantly in 2011, but the bigger challenge lies in deposits.

The above securities companies' survey of several banks in Shenzhen shows that this year's banks have a lot of pressure to maintain and even surpass lending, which has become the focus of all banks.

"Last year, our savings targets were not completed, and stock market diversion had a significant impact on savings. The liquidity of our deposits is very large." A big state-owned Shanghai people sighed.

Research shows that in the process of saving and moving, some of the deposits enter the stock market, and some buy financial products, forming a real interest rate market. But at present, the above channels are limited, on the one hand, because of the stipulation of the adequacy ratio of trust companies, on the other hand, because of the constraint of bank savings deposits, they will not take the initiative to large-scale deposit savings into financial products. After the return of off balance sheet credit, the pressure of deposit to loan ratio will be greater.

According to the survey, another state-owned bank in Shenzhen now accounts for 70% of its assessment index. The deposits of the administrative institutions are very much related to the platform loan business. Usually, the banks with good platform loans will also do well in government deposits. Moreover, the bank's assessment has paid too much attention to the market share, and the pressure of deposit and loan ratio is very great. The current war of collection and preservation has made people feel back to the 80s and 90s of last century. The cost rate is about 0.1%-0.2%.

The survey information of China Merchants Bank shows that the retail banking business in the bank has developed well in recent years, but the pressure of deposit growth in 2011 is still relatively large, especially at the end of the month and the end of the season.

"I have recently talked with the account manager that we can not rely on the cost to store the stock. I know that the market is already high, which is very dangerous." The deputy governor of a Nanjing branch of a joint-stock bank alerts its subordinates.