The Property Market Will Meet The Turning Point In April And May.

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In the face of stringent regulatory policies, the real estate market in March was overshadowed by the traditional peak season, and the real estate market contracted sharply.

According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, 70% cities in the 30 large and medium cities monitored in March are increasing in volume.

But compared to last March, nearly 80% cities fell.

Of particular concern is that the key cities monitored fell across the board year-on-year, with a total decline of 40.5%.

Among them, the largest decline in Beijing reached 48%, and Nanjing and Hangzhou also fell by more than 40%.

Beijing property market turnover declined sharply, the reporter also from yhao organization, chain home real estate, Albert I love my home and other agencies have been confirmed.

Asia ho statistics show that in March, a total of 5743 commercial housing units were completed in Beijing, with an area of 115 thousand square meters. Compared with March 2010, the number of commercial housing pactions in Beijing dropped by 43%, and the area of pactions decreased by 48.4%. According to the statistics of Beijing real estate paction management network, the total number of new residential housing signs in the first quarter was 20747 sets, which fell 41.5% from the fourth quarter of 2010, down 35.8% from the first quarter of 2010.

In addition to the new housing turnover has shrunk dramatically, Beijing's second-hand housing turnover has also declined sharply.

According to Weiye, I love my home market research institute and Beijing real estate paction management network statistics show that in March, the total number of second-hand housing net signed in Beijing was 11102 sets, compared with the more comparable January, volume fell by 52.7%, compared with the same period last year, volume fell by 56.9%.

Volume dropped sharply, while Beijing's housing prices also showed signs of loosening.

Asia ho statistics show that in March, the average price of commercial housing in Beijing fell sharply, dropping to 19213 yuan / square meter, a record low price of 8 consecutive months, a decline of 20% over the same period, and a 9.8% decrease from the same period last year.

"Chain home real estate" Market Research Department data statistics also show that in the first quarter, the average selling price of the new Beijing project was 27693 yuan / square meter, up 13% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, while the average price of the paction was only 18995 yuan / square meter, 10.6% lower than the fourth quarter of last year, the difference between the average price of the paction and the average selling price was as high as 31.7%.

The situation in Beijing is not a case. Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places also have the trend of shrinking pactions and falling prices.

China Index Research Institute's monitoring shows that in March 2011, 6286 commercial housing pactions in Tianjin were completed, with an area of 620 thousand and 200 square meters, with a decrease of 40.41% compared to the same period, with an average price of 8326 yuan / square meter and a decrease of 6.17%.

Price fluctuation has been easing, but it has been down for four consecutive months.

According to the data of the hospital, the average paction price of commercial housing in Shanghai was 13806 yuan / square meter in March, 7.57% lower than that in the ring street. In March, the average price of commercial housing in Shenzhen was 19424 yuan / square meter, down 5.65%.

Yang Hongxu, Minister of the comprehensive research department of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, told reporters that the sharp decline in volume and the signs of loosening of housing prices showed that the property market in Beijing and Shanghai will usher in an inflection point in 4 and May.

"In April, it will not exceed May at the latest. The price of the new commodity housing price in the 70 large and medium-sized cities will fall for the first time, that is, the" inflection point "will appear.

Yang Hongxu believes that with the increasing pressure of real estate developers, the speed of push plates will accelerate, the intensity of discount will also increase, and the price of commercial housing will be expected to fall.

He stressed that the current capital situation of development enterprises has shifted from the past easing to tension.

On the one hand, the external financing of development enterprises is limited, on the other hand, internal sales are blocked. With the increase of the benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan, the funds of future real estate developers will further tighten, and the housing prices forced to reduce prices will increase.

Niu Fengrui, a researcher with the Institute of urban development and environment of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the implementation of the property market regulation policy introduced in January this year has been almost 3 months. A series of policy effects on "limiting loans" and "limiting purchase" to curb market demand are beginning to show. One of the performances is the expected change of buyers and the drop in volume.

With the decline in volume, developers will slow down the pace of capital reflow, which will make the downward pressure on housing prices, even if developers do not cut prices in name, may also take some promotional measures "downhill".

Chen Guoqiang, vice president of the China real estate society, expressed the same view that if the policy loosening does not appear in the coming period, the price window of the property market will arrive ahead of schedule.

He predicts that it will probably come in the two quarter.

However, Niu Fengrui also said that if people now discuss and look forward to the "inflection point" refers to the decline in housing price ratio or weekly ring ratio, then this should be a price change in the short term of the property market, which is microscopic and partial.