Who Moved The Cheese In The Fabric Market?

So far, the fabric market doesn't know what's going on. It's like entering a chaotic world. It makes people feel the desolate winter. If we have "cheese" is happiness, then for the fabric market, orders are the cheese of weaving enterprises. The more important cheese is for you, the more you want to catch it. But this year's fabric market is like a labyrinth. Weaving companies strive to trace the traces of cheese, but find that they are far from enough to fill their stomachs. Then who moves their "cheese"? Below, I look for this answer from the three markets of macroscopical, raw materials and fabrics.

The macro environment of "internal and external troubles"

Profit is the pursuit of most businessmen. at all Where it relates to "money". Now the fundamentals of RMB appreciation have changed quietly. Since December 5th, the RMB exchange rate has seen a trend of decline since the exchange reform. As of December 8th, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 6.3319, which was 0.42% lower than the highest 6.3587 in November. This is mainly due to China's economic slowdown, export surplus and international hot money outflow and other factors, resulting in the depreciation of the renminbi, which jeopardize the interests of export trade.

In addition, China's export orders index continued to decline in November. China's biggest next year consumption The possibility of a recession in Europe is very high, so the export prospects for next year may be rather slim. At present, the lack of orders in the international market can better reflect the true picture of China's textile industry's foreign trade. Moreover, in the second half of the year, the proportion of short and medium orders reached 88%. The international market is cautious in its operation, and dare not make long orders. The domestic market is worried about the fluctuation of raw material prices and exchange rates. The long list is also like "chicken ribs", which further reflects the current market growth fatigue.

Raw material market with uncertain trend

When it comes to fabrics, the fluctuation of raw material prices has always been a topic that can not be turned around. Entering the fourth quarter, the trend of raw material market has not been clear. Until the end of 11, at the same time, the flow signals were released both at home and abroad. When the weaving enterprises were warming up, the polyester market began to "float red". The polyester polyester production and marketing in the downstream of PTA appeared more shotcrete growth, and its popularity was more than that of the lower reaches of the early November 2008. Under the bright prospects of the market, the inventory of chemical fiber raw materials has dropped sharply, and the sales pressure of the enterprises has been relieved obviously.

Although there is spring breath in raw material market, this has not been given. Fabric The market brings a "timely rain". At present, there is still more than a month to go before the Spring Festival. With the recent drop in the start-up rate of weaving enterprises and the lack of substantial recovery in demand, the raw material market is hard to come down, and the upstream business is not easy. This has, to a certain extent, aggravated the buyer's cautious psychology of ordering fabrics.

"Frown" fabric Market

The current fabric market suffers from the scarcity of orders. One of the main reasons is overcapacity. When the excess capacity meets the market shrinkage, a lot of fabrics will not be sold. In order to fight for the only order, enterprises will have to take a price promotion, and the direct consequence of price reduction is to sacrifice profits.

Although the price of clothing listed in the second half of this year has risen significantly, it is in sharp contrast to the drop in chemical fiber raw materials and cotton prices. The product sales price has come up, which does not mean that the fabric market has entered a high profit era. On the contrary, the price of fabric has been "hesitating" in the second half of the year, plus the increase in labor costs, shortage of funds and the weakening of the US dollar, which has eroded the profit of weaving factories. We take the recent spinning price of nylon in the market as an example. From the point of view of production cost, 210T NIS spinning uses nylon DTY70D semi dull silk as raw material. At present, the total cost of the fabric is 2.87 yuan / m, plus the weaving cost and operation cost. NIS spinning is at the edge of profit and loss.

Recently, the domestic grey fabric market has not shown signs of recovery. Most of them are not optimistic about the market outlook, and lack of business confidence. Cotton and chemical fiber fabrics are still difficult to change in terms of volume and price. Downstream demand for the terminal market is not as good as traditional expectations. In the past, orders for one style and pattern can be done for 2 months or more, but this year it can take up to a month or so. On the one hand, it affects the production efficiency of enterprise processing, and on the other hand, it also increases the difficulty of fabric procurement.

In my opinion, the external macro market is not a straightforward corridor, it can easily see the order. The raw material market is like a labyrinth, so that the search for orders is even more confused. The fabric market is the "cheese" arena, which makes the enterprises compete for competition. At present, any trend can affect the fragile fabric market and steal the order cheese.