10, Domestic Cotton Will Continue To Face Sales Pressure.
Speculative buying pushed up ICE
Stage cotton
Price
After the long weekend, the popularity of the ICE cotton market was revived. With the support of speculative buying, ICE cotton rebounded and the main contract in May rose 0.94 cents to 89.48 cents / pound, and the support of 87 cents / pound was once again verified.
On the other hand, the May contract is about to expire, and the renewal paction also constitutes a certain support for the market.
On Tuesday, USDA will issue a monthly forecast of supply and demand in April. It is widely predicted that USDA will increase the export volume of US cotton. This may make ICE cotton continue to rise, but the downturn in global consumption will put pressure on cotton prices.
Technically, the ICE cotton fell again at 87 cents / pound, but the cotton price was still suppressed by the short-term average, while the KD and MACD index continued to bear short.
Fall
Arrangement, MACD index green column began to grow, cotton prices are still in a downward trend, the single day rebound not coke view, pay attention to 87 cents / pounds on cotton price support role.
Although the China Development and Reform Commission officials expressed the desire to stabilize cotton prices and the government of India also began to buy and store to try to stabilize its domestic cotton prices, Zheng cotton fell flat on Monday. But in the case of China's cotton price is much higher than the international cotton price and India has completed the export expectation, the above supply speculation will not become the dominant market factor.
Global supply of cotton is severely oversupplied in 2011/12, and the continued deterioration of the euro area economy will inhibit consumption.
Chinese products lose their competitiveness in the international market due to high costs, and the continuing high price differential will lead to shrinking Chinese consumption.
Domestic cotton
It will face enormous sales pressure.
Zheng cotton registered inventory continued to increase substantially, and the 428B class real estate is the main position. From the change of positions, the main funds have signs of war 1301 contracts. After losing funds, the large quantity of low inventory makes the value of Zheng cotton face revaluation risk. The recent rebound will not be optimistic. In the future, Zheng cotton will continue to decline. It will continue to increase its holdings in the next 21400 yuan / ton line, paying attention to the 1209 contract 21200 yuan / ton supporting position and 21500 yuan / ton pressure level, short-term target to 20800 yuan / ton line, 1205 contract target to 20000 yuan / ton line.
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