Data Said Cotton: China Cotton Inventory Consumption Ratio Of More Than 100%

China's cotton consumption ratio exceeds 100%

The latest US cotton supply and demand report released by the US Department of agriculture in October showed that it once again reduced the total consumption of cotton to 7 million 838 thousand and 200 tons in China, and the reduction of 435 thousand and 500 tons per annulus. This figure is also reduced by nearly 2 million tons compared with the total cotton consumption of 9 million 828 thousand and 900 tons in 2011/2012.

Global economic growth is weak.

Business climate index continued to be low, cotton demand continued to be weak, and high inventory, it can be said that in the next two or three years, the global cotton market will enter a relatively relaxed stage.

New cotton picking up and storage process accelerated compared with the same period last year

As of 23, the new cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 1315970 tons, of which 304650 tons were traded in the mainland and 1011320 tons in Xinjiang.

The average turnover rate is about 54.61%, and the turnover rate in Xinjiang area has reached more than 90% in recent years. Compared with the same period last year, the volume of storage and purchase has increased significantly, and the paction rate has increased significantly. The storage and purchase process has been going smoothly and has accelerated since last year. In the downturn of cotton market, this phenomenon is also the inevitable result driven by the law of value.

Cottonseed meal, cottonseed oil and other cotton by-products prices go down.

The price of cottonseed meal and cottonseed oil in cotton byproducts in recent years is not small. The analysis is based on the deep callback of soybean meal and soybean oil prices, but cottonseed prices are relatively stable.

On the 24 day, the average price of cottonseed meal in China was 2484 yuan / ton, a drop of over 10% since the beginning of September, and the average price of grade three cotton oil was 7530 yuan / ton, which was also lower than 1000 yuan / ton in early September.

Cotton by-products, cottonseed meal and cottonseed oil fell sharply, to a certain extent, put pressure on zhengmian.

Cotton spot prices remain stable

New cotton storage and storage at the same time, domestic

Spot prices have been more stable recently and gradually show a low level of stabilization.

At present, domestic cotton spot price 328 level average price is 18791 yuan / ton, the 229 level average price is 19645 yuan / ton.

The spot price of cotton will stabilize at a low level, and Zheng cotton may not have much room for downside.

Short positions to lead us cotton down

Recently, the number of non commercial short positions in the 2 cotton exchange of Intercontinental Exchange has increased significantly. It has increased to about 79 thousand, while the number of non commercial long positions has decreased to about 68 thousand, short positions are about 11 thousand, and the proportion of non commercial short positions is 34.10% and 39.50% respectively.

The European debt problem has once again been highlighted. Investors are worried about their gains and their positions are reduced.

The US dollar forced the US dollar valuation of commodities to bear pressure, while the European debt crisis continued and a series of weak business performance increased the pressure on the market, and investors' risk aversion intensified. The ICE exchange in December slumped by about 3.46%.

US cotton decline led to weakness in the inner market, but due to the domestic market policy, it is expected that the drop space may be limited.

It is not appropriate to stir up the market.