PTA Is Facing Strong Pressure In Early Stage Gap.

Fall by crude oil and

The impact of the company's production rumors has opened a rebound trend since the 1501 contract of PTA futures has reached a new low of 5 days in November. As of November 24th, the price rose to 5944 yuan / ton from the lowest 5316 yuan / ton, or 11.81%.

At present, polyester enterprises not only have finished the inventory, but also are at a historical low.

As of November 21st, the average stock of polyester filament POY was 10.5 days, down 4 days from the end of September, a decrease of 27.59%. The average stock of polyester filament DTY was 13.5 days, which was 6 days lower than that at the end of September, and the decline was 30.77%. The average stock of polyester filament FDY was 14.5 days, which was two days lower than that of September, and the decrease was 12.12%.

Judging from past years, polyester stocks in November tend to be at a high level, but this year is different. Due to the sharp fall in crude oil prices, the downstream polyester enterprises will not be willing to replenishment.

This can be seen from the start-up rate of downstream polyester enterprises.

As of November 21st, the polyester filament operating rate was 78%, compared with 75% at the end of October, and the increase was not obvious.

In the context of the sharp fall in crude oil prices, downstream enterprises have been looking at the post market, not large-scale replenishment, which is difficult to form support for the PTA market.

The recent rise in the price of PTA is largely due to the rumors of enterprises shutting down production.

In the early days, prices dropped sharply, and PTA production enterprises had difficulty in operation. Only by cutting production prices could they push up prices and ease operating pressure.

However, it is difficult to keep the price limit action for a long time.

There are two reasons: first, the rise of PTA price will occupy the profit of downstream polyester enterprises. As profits are diluted, it will lead to a decline in demand for PTA for polyester enterprises, thus counteracting PTA production enterprises. Secondly, the PTA industry is a typical oligopoly industry. Because of the disunity of interests, the collusion of oligopoly enterprises is very fragile. Once the price of PTA rises to a certain height, the price alliance will be hard to maintain.

Based on the above two reasons, we believe that the PTA rebound is highly limited.

To sum up, although the PTA price is expected to maintain a rebound from the rumors of enterprises shutting down, considering that the PTA industry is still dominated by weakness, and with limited production and insurance prices, it is difficult for them to stay longer. PTA's rebound is highly limited.

Therefore, it is estimated that the price gap of the 1501 contract price in the early 6000 to 6130 yuan / ton will be under strong pressure, and investors will be able to make a trial run in the first light warehouse.