ACP Negotiations Fail, PX Price And Profit Squeeze Space

Recent Greek farce has been deadlocked, and the political gaming risk in the euro zone has increased.

China's HSBC PMI data in June was 49.4, less than expected 49.6.

The continued improvement in US economic data is on the market.

In September, the interest rate increase is expected to be stronger. The US dollar index showed a trend of upward oscillation after the two probe of the 95 integer pass, which further brought pressure on the crude oil market.

On the other hand, the situation of international crude oil supply and demand has not seen a marked improvement.

As of June 19th, the US crude oil output remained at a high level of 9 million 604 thousand barrels per day, increasing from 9 million 430 thousand barrels per day in May.

Iraq's crude oil output in June reached 4 million 388 thousand barrels per day, the highest level in history, boosting OPEC6 crude oil output to 32 million 134 thousand barrels per day for three years.

Later, the Iran nuclear talks were postponed. In view of the strong willingness of all parties to reach a nuclear agreement, it is expected that the final nuclear sanctions against Iran will be abolished and Iran crude oil inflow will be pushed forward.

International crude oil market

There is still plenty.

The peak season for US crude oil seasonal demand will be over. Sufficient supply will reverse the decline of US crude oil inventory for two consecutive months. Therefore, the international crude oil market will face double pressures of rising US dollar index and loose supply and demand in the later stage.

At the end of June, the cash flow of the PTA factory deteriorated rapidly. In the case of the difficulty in pferring the polyester off-season costs, the PTA plant had to make profits to the upstream PX. Therefore, in the context of the divergence between buyers and sellers, the PX ACP negotiations in July failed again.

At present, the PX link still has a production profit of 72 US dollars / ton. Under the pattern of the polyester terminal demand in the low season from 7 to August, the rate of PTA plant starts to decline along with polyester, and PX demand will gradually become weaker. The new 1 million 600 thousand ton PX installation of Sinopec is expected to start at the end of July, which will increase the downward adjustment pressure of PX price and profit.

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In response to the Chinese government's formal announcement of 1 million tonnes of national cotton reserves in July, the Southeast Asian yarn and domestic cotton yarn traders in India, Pakistan and Vietnam showed a relatively calm performance. They believed that the impact on the import and export yarn Market in terms of quantity and price would not be much or even ignored.

A large cotton yarn export company in India believes that China will not have an impact on the market at the current market price, but if the price is substantially lower than the current market price and does not depend on the actual life and quality of cotton reserves, it will bring downward pressure on cotton prices.

Because the overall quality of China's cotton reserves is low, most of the cotton thrown out is not suitable for spinning knitting yarn or high quality woven yarn, so it will not affect the price of high quality yarn, but the price of low-grade yarns may be under pressure.

Overall, cotton yarn prices will remain basically stable.

　　其一、目前港口已清关2014/15年度已清关印度棉S-6的成交价仅13400-13600元/吨，抛储价明显高于现货，对印度棉、西非棉、巴基斯坦棉等是利好;其二、中国纺企关注和竞拍的重点将是2012年度国储外棉(有传言100%美棉)和少量2011年度国储棉，前者品级、品质比较好，相对于目前市场可供的货源而言有“一致性高，纤维长度长和强力较好”等卖点;后者抛储价格低，适合纺C32S及以下支数棉纱，而印度棉S-6等级、品质则与2011年国储棉、2012年度国储美棉“错位”，纺纱品质介入“中等偏上”，在这一领域中国市场印巴、越南棉纱仍具较强竞争力;其三、由于印度棉纱供货订单大多提前30-45天签订，合同价格、数量以及抵港交货时间早已确定;从郑期近月合约以及外棉现货的表现来看，对于即将到来的100万吨抛储大多“横盘”冷对，纱线合同调整的可能性不大。

According to the analysis of the exporters, the Chinese government has set up a dumping price of more than 500 yuan / ton above the spot market, which is likely to trigger an overall rise in the price of the new cotton, the real estate cotton and the port has cleared the outside cotton quotas. On the one hand, the profits of the cotton yarn will continue to decline and the rate of starting up will decline. The import and export of imported yarn such as India and Pakistan will increase. On the other hand, India CCI still has a stock of about 1100000 tons, but the left behind storage time is less than 3 months. The average monthly turnover will be about 300000 tons before the new cotton market will be "light". So the more time is pushed back, the greater the pressure of CCI throwing and storing will be, and the sharp decline of the reserve price will be inevitable in the 7-10 months. India, Pakistan, Indonesia and other countries