Gu Mingde: There Is No Need For The Stock Market To Be So Pessimistic.

The most popular theme of the big WeChat groups is that the US will soon raise interest rates in a new round of depreciation, which has reached a new low in recent months.

As a professional financial researcher, I deeply feel that market confidence is in a serious downturn, and any financial phenomenon and economic data are interpreted from a negative perspective.

But I think there is no need to be so pessimistic.

Well,

Why is it so fragile and so vulnerable? In addition to investors' need for calm, more importantly, management must pay attention to and must reflect on it.

First,

The exchange rate against the US dollar has not been low and new.

The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has been relatively stable between 6.60 and 6.40 in the past 5 months after the recent low of 6.60 yuan in early January.

This box has a total of only 0.2 yuan.

The ratio is 3%.

This week, the renminbi is only close to the 6.56 upper section of the box.

In the past two weeks, the depreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar is only about 2%, and it has not broken through the box and is low in innovation.

If the magnitude of the 2% is a big depreciation, then the currencies of other countries will be greatly depreciated or greatly appreciated every day.

The US dollar index is 100 at the beginning of the year. At present 95 points, why is it that no one calls the US dollar depreciating? In the process of exchange rate marketization, the currency exchange rate of every country fluctuates day by day.

The country is more intense.

When the media said that the RMB depreciated or rose 200 basis points, the popular saying was to depreciate or raise 2 cents, with a magnitude of about 0.3%.

For big countries, this is a normal fluctuation.

Second, that is, the price of RMB against the US dollar has fallen below the price of 6.6 yuan, and there is no need to panic.

The depreciation and appreciation of a country's currency are both half advantages and disadvantages.

When the Japanese yen and the euro depreciated, the share price rose.

Investors are good for export growth.

Why does China's RMB appreciate or depreciate? Financial journalists and amateur experts say that the market is bad, and most people in the market will really believe in big profits and throw stocks away. This only shows that the market confidence is seriously insufficient.

Third, does the US dollar raise interest rates in June or July? This is an uncertain event in itself.

In other words, what is the interest rate increase in the US dollar? Will the renminbi depreciate? Will the world's capital flow to the us again? Investors in Europe and Japan are not panic, and share prices continue to rise.

Only Chinese investors can not stand the situation, leaving the stock market.

Reshape market confidence is a difficult social huge project.

In this regard, management should take great efforts to think of more effective measures.

For example, if we are determined to change the imbalance between the interests of the primary market and the two level market, and the 40 thousand companies are queuing up and going public, we must tighten the rules for the reduction of large shareholders. We should be cautious about the speeches, the spirit of documents and various articles which are not conducive to stabilizing market confidence.

In short, all work is based on confidence stability.