The Supply And Demand Structure Is Tight, And The State Reserves Will Be Put In Place.

Cotton has been hot since its decision to throw and store, and prices have risen all the way. The main contract has risen by 50% at the bottom of the 1701 period, and there is no sign of stopping. At present, cotton textile enterprises are limited by cash flow constraints, and the purchasing strategy of buying and selling is only enough to meet the demand of cotton for about 20 days. At the end of the end of August when the national cotton store was put into operation, the cotton resources could only be purchased from the traders Department under the condition that the national cotton reserves could not be auctions. At that time, cotton producers would be more dominant in the pricing of cotton, and the tight supply and demand would further boost cotton prices.

from Supply and demand structure Speaking, before the new cotton comes into the market, the supply is mainly commercial stocks and 1 million tons of national cotton reserves to be put into operation, plus a small quantity of imported cotton. If we do not consider the quantity of cotton held by traders, there will be a gap of 400 thousand tons between total supply and demand, and domestic cotton prices will continue to grow. In the medium to long term, from the middle of October, the new cotton market will be listed in China, and the situation of "having too many money" is likely to cause the cotton enterprises to rush to collect money. Cotton prices will remain strong.

Starting from January 2016, the number of cotton industry stocks continued to be low, until the end of April, there was no significant increase in the number of industrial inventories, reflecting that cotton textile enterprises already had the demand for replenishing raw materials before the national cotton store went out, and the whole industry was in a state of "equal cooking", so the role of national cotton in the supply of cotton was very important.

From the early stage of the trend of Zheng cotton's disk is not difficult to find once. Reserve cotton When the listing is reduced, the futures market will be reflected immediately, resulting in a tight supply situation. It means that the factors that affect cotton prices are not entirely caused by demand side. The more important reason is that the state-owned cotton mills are running in a long way, resulting in insufficient supply.

Although the market calls for increasing the number of cotton reserves put into operation, and the national development and Reform Commission and the central cotton storage company have repeatedly stressed the importance of ensuring the output and outgoing efficiency of the national cotton reserves, the actual results show that the daily delivery quantity remains at a low level, and there is no policy signal to increase the total quantity. National cotton reserves Will continue the hot trading status.

The existence of domestic and foreign cotton price difference makes textile enterprises still have strong import demand, but from two indications, it is possible to predict the possibility of imported cotton rising in the future. First, the price of the COTLOOK index representing the international minimum cotton price has been flat with the price of imported cotton, that is to say, the price of domestic cotton imports has been relatively low in the world. Two, the recent improvement in US cotton exports has supported the rise of US cotton. At the same time, due to the large difference in imported cotton: the price of cotton in Australia is too high, the short fiber in the US cotton (27mm), the horse value is low, and the turnover is not much; the recent price of India cotton has risen to 14000 yuan / ton, and the acceptance level of the textile mill is low.