If The Market Continues To Erupt, Can It Pull The "Stubborn Cow" Of PTA?

Since July, the price of PTA has fallen, and the processing fee has been compressed. At present, the price of the product is only 200 - 300 yuan / ton.

Affected by the fall in PTA prices, the operating conditions of PTA production enterprises have continued to deteriorate and losses have intensified.

Under the premise of constant cost, the price limit of PTA is the processing fee.

As a matter of fact, once

If the processing fee is too low, PTA production enterprises will limit production and price.

To judge whether PTA prices continue to fall, we only need to judge the cost situation.

Judging from the current situation, the price difference between naphtha and PX has reached 400 US dollars / ton, and profits have stimulated PX enterprises to actively produce.

However, late PX maintenance is relatively intensive, and supply will decline.

Therefore, it is expected that the cost side of PTA will maintain the status quo, or even increase slightly.

Under the premise that the spot price is stable, subject to lower processing fees, the price of PTA is also very limited.

Theoretically, there is limited space for PTA processing fees to continue to be compressed. The rise and fall of PTA's price center is closely related to the price of raw materials. Only when raw material prices fall and the cost of PTA's center of gravity moves down, can the new downside space be released.

On the whole, the G20 summit made the consumption of PTA and polyester products ahead of schedule, but overdrawn.

It will become a hidden danger of raw material prices falling after the lack of demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply and demand performance of polyester industry after the G20 summit.

It is understood that during the G20 summit, the polyester industry cut down production and production capacity is more, so polyester enterprises maintain high opening rate before that, and make up for the loss of production that may result from limited production.

At the same time,

Also better performance, the state of enterprise inventory is relatively ideal, in mid July, because of the news of price increases, the polyester products were sold well, so that the downstream enterprises have the need to bargain and store up goods, so as to prevent the price rise that may result from tight supply after the limited production.

PTA's main contract is close to delivery, and it still maintains a high position. Taking into account the large number of registered warehouse receipts and short strength, PTA futures price is hard to form an effective rise.

The PTA spot market follows the volatility of the futures market. The digestion of PTA warehouse receipts at the later stage is the key factor to decide whether the market can go up.

To sum up, in the short term, the PTA processing fee is lower than the supporting price, and the polyester maintain high opening rate will continue to benefit PTA.

However, the Hon Bang petrochemical plant for pre parking has been restarted. Last week, the constant force device for temporary parking has been restarted yesterday. The supply pressure of PTA can not be ignored. The end of August to the beginning of September is still bad.

In a word, I believe that the price decline of PTA is not easy to rise or difficult.