Financial Deleveraging Caused By Regulation Remains To Be Seen.

Liquidity easing, capital prices down, when the value of mid June, the capital side of the tense expectations eventually become "false alarm."

However, in the face of the smooth running of the cross season capital market, there is new concern in the market. The 28 day reverse repurchase and medium term loan convenience (MLF) will expire in July. Will there be another tight liquidity situation? How will the monetary policy work?

Wu Ge told reporters: "at present, there is no obvious change from the macro economy and fundamentals. The capital market in the interbank market is still in a tight balance. Monetary policy will not change in any direction due to the special time points in June. The rise of systemic interest rates similar to the first half of the year will not happen again.

The gold face is expected to remain a tight balance in July.

Since last Friday, the central bank has suspended the open market operation for four consecutive days because of the larger fiscal expenditure at the end of the month.

The central bank announced on the 28 day that the financial expenditure at the end of the month increased, and the liquidity of the banking system was at a high level after the hedge reverse repurchase expired.

Operation.

In view of the 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase expired on that day, the net return of funds was 50 billion yuan.

According to Wind statistics, the central bank has invested 40 billion yuan in the open market since June.

Because of the relatively loose liquidity in the middle of the year, the capital interest rate also showed a downward trend.

Yesterday, Shanghai interbank offered rate (Shibor) fell.

Overnight interest rates fell sharply by 6.64 basis points to 2.5596%, and 7 day interest rates dropped 2.57 basis points.

The rate of hypothecation repurchase rate of deposit institutions also declined, and DR007 dropped to more than 3% from the previous week's high level to 2.8276%.

The central bank has resumed the 28 day reverse repurchase operation to supplement cross season liquidity in early June, so it will face a concentrated funding expiry in July.

Wind statistics show that in July, a total of 917 billion 500 million yuan of funds expired, of which the reverse repurchase was 560 billion yuan, and MLF had 357 billion 500 million yuan.

About 70% of the funds will expire in the first half of the month.

From the perspective of market feedback, the central bank

The operation is expected to be more stable.

Societe Generale says there is no need to worry about the July liquidity recovery.

On the one hand, monetary policy has shifted from a pre steady and tight operation to a truly "loose, tight" precise launch; on the other hand, the central bank has further strengthened its expected management and stressed the stable cross season.

To enhance confidence in the market.

Historically, in the early July, the central bank adopted more net currency operations.

CITIC Securities fixed income research team expects that the central bank in July may still maintain a small net investment to cope with the pressure of the beginning of the season, and liquidity is expected to remain stable.

In addition, the recent central bank open market operation has also repeatedly mentioned financial expenditure factors.

As the fiscal expenditure increased liquidity release at the end of 6, the central bank has no longer replenished liquidity.

According to convention, the fiscal revenue may rise in July when the corporate income tax is paid in the beginning of the season.

In this regard, Haitong Securities fixed income research team believes that the impact of fiscal deposits is seasonal and predictable, and the central bank will take it as an important reference factor in the open market operation, so it is not expected to have much impact.

At the same time, the impact of foreign exchange on the capital side is weakening.

"There are not many accidents in July. It is important to note that some regulatory policies in the early stages remain to be observed."

Wu Ge said that the central bank's monetary policy operation is not the main factor that perturbed the liquidity in July. The uncertainty of financial leverage caused by regulation may have an impact on the capital side, including the progress of relevant regulatory measures.

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