China'S New Support Point For Economic Growth, Rapid Rise, Consumption Contribution Exceeds 60%

Recently, a number of data released show that China's economic structural adjustment, the old and new energy conversion is speeding up.

The value added of strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries and corporate profits have maintained a growth rate of more than two digits over the past few months. At present, the contribution rate of consumption to the economy has exceeded 60%, and the proportion of the service sector in the economy has reached 54.1%.

Recently, international agencies have increased the forecast of China's economic growth rate.

Many experts said that with the new momentum gradually growing into the main support for steady growth, there will be no turning point in the economy in the coming period, and it is expected to maintain rapid growth.

Speed up manufacturing industry to accelerate toward high-end

At present,

It is showing a trend towards rapid development.

According to the profit data of industrial enterprises in June, the manufacturing industry accounted for 40.7% of the total profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size, 11.3 percentage points higher than that of May, 19.3% of the high technology manufacturing industry, 0.6 percentage points higher, while mining industry accounted for 22.1%, a decrease of 13.4 percentage points over May, and has declined for two consecutive months.

The contribution rate of equipment manufacturing industry to industrial profit growth has exceeded that of mining industry.

The profit growth of related industrial enterprises is inseparable from the expansion of enterprise production.

In the first half of this year, the added value of strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries increased by 10.8% and 13.1% respectively, up by 3.9 and 6.2 percentage points respectively over the above scale industries, up 0.3 and 2.3 percentage points respectively over the same period last year.

Industrial robots, civilian UAVs, urban rail vehicles, SUV, new energy vehicles, integrated circuits, lithium ion batteries, solar cells, optical cables, optoelectronic devices and other emerging industrial products have maintained rapid growth.

Xing Zhihong, spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said last September that the producer price of industrial producers (PPI) ended 54 consecutive months of negative growth, and business operations and expectations improved significantly, and the industrial production situation was relatively stable.

After last March, the growth of above scale industries basically remained above 6%, and the growth rate of industrial added value increased this year.

The stability, efficiency improvement and expected improvement of industrial production have also led to an increase in industrial investment.

In the first half of the year, the investment in manufacturing increased by 5.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the same period, and the investment in technological pformation increased by 11.8%, accounting for 45.6% of the investment in the manufacturing industry, which laid a better foundation for the stable growth of industry in the future.

Experts said that with the support of policies, the pace of pformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry in the future is expected to further accelerate.

"In the internal structure of the second industry, the future high-tech industry and high-end equipment manufacturing industry will still lead the whole industry, and this trend will not change."

Chen Yao, director of the Regional Economic Office of the Institute of industrial economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that the use of new strategic industries, especially intelligent manufacturing and artificial intelligence, has been increasing in traditional industries. For example, smelting of non-ferrous metals has been realized automation and integration. In the future, it will pform to intelligence, and the efficiency of resources deep processing industry will be greatly improved.

Since the beginning of this year, consumption growth has been steady. In the first half of last year, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 63.4%, ranking the first in the "three carriages".

At the same time, the characteristics of service led economic growth are more obvious. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of service industry is faster than the second industry growth rate by 1.3 percentage points, and the service sector accounts for 54.1% of the economy, which is 14 percentage points higher than that of the second industry.

Xie Yaxuan, chief macroeconomic analyst at China Merchants Securities, said that in the first half of this year, the consumption growth rate was 10.4%, and the investment growth rate was 8.6%. The consumption growth rate continued to outpace investment growth since May last year.

The difference between the two level of growth suggests that the position of investment and consumption in China's economy is changing.

At present, consumption has become the main driving force of the economy. In the first half of the year, the nominal growth rate of the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 8.8%, the actual growth rate was 7.3%, which was better than the same period last year and the first quarter of this year.

This shows that residents' incomes continue to improve, and the increase in incomes will naturally lead to a rise in consumer demand.

"Consumption is often the most easily neglected variable in China's macro research.

But in the first half of this year, the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth reached 63.4%, and in the first quarter it was as high as 77.2%.

It seems that all sectors begin to realize the importance of consumption, and even take it as an important evidence for the opening of the new economic cycle.

Wu Ge, chief economist of Huarong securities, believes that short-term consumption growth will remain relatively stable.

With the accelerated aging of the population, the proportion of consumption to GDP will continue to rise, and the internal structure of consumption is changing rapidly from commodity consumption to service consumption.

The structural changes related to consumption in the future may be more important than the growth of consumption itself.

Data show that the structure of consumption itself is escalating.

In the first half of the year, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 28.6% over the same period last year. The growth rate was faster than the national retail sales of consumer goods by 18.2 percentage points, accounting for 13.8% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

Regarding the direction of the future change of consumption structure, the responsible person of the National Bureau of statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics said that along with the continuous improvement of residents' income level and the change of consumption concept, the consumption structure has been continuously improved, and the consumption of residents has changed from the satisfaction of injection weight to the pursuit of quality improvement, from visible material goods to more service consumption.

Sales of quality upgrading products such as communications equipment, automobiles, residential related commodities, cultural products and so on are booming. Public catering, cultural entertainment, leisure tourism, education and training, medical and health, health care and other service consumption have become new consumption hot spots. Personalized and diversified consumption has become the mainstream.

The foundation for China's steady economic growth

Recently, many international organizations and financial institutions have raised the expected growth rate of China's economy.

The update of the world economic outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that China's economic growth forecast is expected to increase by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points to 6.7% and 6.4% respectively this year and next.

This is the third time IMF has raised China's economic growth forecast for 2017 this year.

JP Morgan and Nomura have raised China's annual economic growth rate from 6.7% to 6.8%. Asia's GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 rose from 6.5% and 6.2% to 6.7% and 6.4% respectively; Standard Chartered Bank will increase China's economic growth rate from 6.6% to 6.8% in 2017, and anticipate China's first accelerated growth since 2010.

In addition, Citibank raised China's three or four quarter economic growth forecast from 6.5% and 6.4% to 6.7% and 6.6% respectively. In 2017, the forecast value of GDP growth was also raised from 6.6% to 6.8%.

Experts said that in upgrading the structure,

On the basis of gradually becoming "ballast stone" and "stabilizer", the Chinese economy will not have inflection point for a period of time, and will maintain stable growth at medium and high speed.

Xing Zhihong said that in the context of the in-depth implementation of the supply side structural reform and the accelerated development of the innovation driven development strategy, the positive changes in China's economic operation in the second half of this year will continue to increase, and the steady and favorable development trend will be further consolidated and expanded.

Guo Lei, chief macroeconomic analyst of GF Securities, said that the two quarter's economic data further falsified the "hard landing" of the economy.

In the second half of 2017, the L trend and high toughness of the economy from 2016 to 2020 were increasingly recognized, and the economy was stronger than the optimistic expectations in the market in the short term.

Xie Yaxuan said that the resilience of China's economy in the first half of the year mainly stems from four factors: first, the pformation of the economic structure; consumption has replaced investment as the main driving force for economic growth; and the service industry has replaced the manufacturing industry as the largest contribution to GDP growth; two, the marginal contribution of export warming to China's economy has been greater; three, macroeconomic policy coordination, positive fiscal policy and structural reform measures can alleviate the negative impact of financial regulation on the real economy; four, financial deleveraging and financial support entities may be able to take into account.

In the second half of the year, the fundamentals will remain stable and provide a bigger policy space for correctly handling the relationship between stability and progress.

More interesting reports, please pay attention to the world clothing shoes and hats net.