Interpretation: In June 2019, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Was Flat.

In June 30, 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Center and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Investigation Center, made an interpretation.

　　 1. The purchasing managers index of manufacturing industry is unchanged from last month.

In June, the manufacturing industry PMI was 49.4%, and the manufacturing boom level was the same as last month. The main characteristics of this month are: first, the overall expansion of production and the transformation and upgrading of industries. The production index was 51.3%, although it dropped 0.4 percentage points from last month, but it continued to expand in the expansion area. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 13 industries were located in the expansion area, and the manufacturing index of pharmaceutical, railway, ship, aerospace and equipment, food and alcoholic beverages, refined tea, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communication and electronic equipment was located in the high gas section of more than 54%. In terms of key industries, the production index of high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries is 55.6%, 53.3% and 52.2%, respectively, and the chain ratio has increased, which is higher than the total 4.3, 2 and 0.9 percentage points of the manufacturing sector. The production boom has been steadily rising, indicating that in the current complex and changeable economic environment, the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry continues to push forward, and the promotion role of high-end manufacturing and consumer goods manufacturing industry to economic growth is further enhanced. Two, the growth momentum of market orders is weak, and the environment for foreign trade development is tightening. The new order index was 49.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from last month, and was in the contraction interval for two consecutive months. Among them, the new export orders index reflecting external demand was 46.3%, down from 0.2 percentage points last month. Three, domestic and foreign commodity price fluctuations and changes in supply and demand of some industries, and so on, the price index both fell. The main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were 49% and 45.4%, respectively, 2.8 and 3.6 percentage points lower than that of last month. Four, enterprises are basically stable in anticipation of market development in the near future. The expected production and business activity index is 53.4%, and 18 of the 21 industries surveyed are in the expansion section. Among them, the production and operation activities of pharmaceutical, railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other manufacturing industries are expected to be located in the high and high economic zone above 60%.

From the scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises is 49.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, and the PMI of small and medium enterprises is 49.1% and 48.3%, respectively, up 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from last month.

　　 Two, the non manufacturing business activity index continued to be located in the higher economic zone.

In June, the index of non manufacturing business activity was 54.2%, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage points from last month, and a continuous high level of business for 54% consecutive months in 6 months, indicating that the overall development of non manufacturing industry is steady.

The service industry has steadily expanded. The business activity index of the service industry was 53.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month. This year, the index is located in the economic zone of more than 53%, and the fluctuation is relatively small. The service industry generally maintains stable and rapid growth. From the perspective of the industry, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transport, telecommunications, banking, insurance and other industries is located in the relatively high economic zone of 59% and above, and the total business volume has increased rapidly; the business activity index of road transport, accommodation, catering, residential services and repair industries is below the critical point, and the total business volume has dropped. From the market expectation, enterprises are optimistic about the recent market development, and the service industry activity expectation index is 60.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from last month, and the 21 industries surveyed are all located in the expansion area. Among them, the business activity expectations of retail, railway transportation, air transport, catering, cultural, sports and entertainment industries were higher than 62%, indicating that as summer vacation approaches, industries related to summer consumption are more optimistic about the recent market development.

The construction industry has improved its outlook. Construction business activity index was 58.7%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, and construction industry production activities have been accelerated. From the perspective of market demand, the new order index is 56%, up 3.9 percentage points from last month, and higher than the average value of 1.3 percentage points in the year. This indicates that with the gradual landing of major infrastructure projects in recent years, the market demand for construction industry has been accelerated in the peak season of production, and the number of newly signed contracts has increased significantly.

　　 Three, the comprehensive PMI output index continues to expand.

In June, the composite PMI output index was 53%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating that China's enterprises' production and operation activities have been expanding, but the pace has slowed down. The manufacturing production index and non manufacturing business activity index of the composite PMI output index were 51.3% and 54.2% respectively.