Market Analysis: The Export Risk Of Foreign Trade Is Being Amplified In The Future

Recently, many textile foreign trade factories in our country have burst orders. In fact, the sudden outbreak of the textile market seems to ignite the whole foreign trade industry, and many practitioners are optimistic about the continued recovery of orders.

However, in the prosperity of orders, textile and clothing foreign trade enterprises are also facing many risks and problems. In addition, with the recent rebound of the overseas epidemic situation, the risk of foreign trade export has increased. Besides optimism, we need to be cautious.

European epidemic situation continues to worsen!

Two weeks after the second siege, the French Prime Minister delivered a speech at 18:00 p.m. on the current epidemic situation.

The following are the main contents of this speech:

Like other European countries, the second wave was very violent. The pressure of the hospital is also very high. Every 30 seconds, one person is hospitalized for infection of Xinguan, and one patient enters the intensive care unit every three minutes. The peak of hospitalization even exceeds April.

Since the onset of the new coronavirus pandemic, 42500 patients have died in France. He was saddened and sympathized with the death of more than 10000 people in the past week and 400 to 500 people a day recently from the new coronavirus.

Despite the recent improvement in the epidemic situation, it is "irresponsible" to remove the restrictive measures. The French government has decided to continue the closure of the city for at least the next 15 days, with all the original provisions unchanged.

Shopping malls and "non essential" shops continue to be closed. The prime minister said that he hoped that people could reopen during the Christmas period, but it is obvious that that time has not yet come, so we still need to be cautious and try our best to make people travel less.

More than 100000 newly diagnosed cases were added for 9 consecutive days

Biden new crown Consultant: closing cities in the United States may control the epidemic situation

Michael Osterholm, an epidemic consultant for US Democratic presidential candidate Biden, said the nationwide closures could help bring the new epidemic under control and even promote the recovery of the U.S. economy.

Ostholm raised the idea in an interview with Yahoo Finance on Wednesday, ABC News reported. Ostholm said the United States could manage the new outbreak by closing businesses for four to six weeks and paying people for lost wages until they were vaccinated.

Ostholm said the situation could reduce infection and hospitalization rates, as in New Zealand and Australia. "Then, we can really see ourselves start using the vaccine in the first and second quarters of next year, while recovering the economy much earlier."

Earlier, ostholm and Neel Kashkari, chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, wrote that the problem with the US city closure from March to May this year was that it was not strict nationwide. "In Minnesota, for example, 78 percent of people think jobs are important." They pointed out that "to be effective, the blockade must be as comprehensive and strict as possible."

According to reports, ostholm, director of the center for infectious disease research and policy at the University of Minnesota, was appointed a member of Biden's team's new epidemic situation consultant on the 9th. He served as the special envoy for health and safety science of the US State Department from June 2018 to may 2019.

According to CNN, 44 of the 50 states in the United States have increased the number of new confirmed cases in one week by at least 10% compared with the previous week. At present, there are more than 1000 new pneumonia inpatients per day in the United States. CNN said the numbers are not optimistic because the increase in the number of hospitalized people is usually accompanied by an increase in the number of deaths.

Some experts said that the number of confirmed cases of new coronal pneumonia has increased significantly, which is far beyond the imagination of most people. Even so, the worst days of the U.S. epidemic are yet to come. In the next few weeks, it would not be surprising if more than 200000 new cases were confirmed in a single day.

International footwear giant issues warning:

The next three months are not optimistic!

Adidas (Adidas) group, a German sports giant, said recently that the new round of blockade caused by the second wave of epidemic not only interrupted the current recovery process, but also impacted the group's performance again.

In recent weeks, due to the outbreak of the second wave of epidemic in Europe, some stores of Adidas have been suspended again, and the government's stricter social distance has also led to a continuous decline in customer traffic in physical stores in Europe. Adidas is the first European consumer goods company to issue a profit warning.

Adidas pointed out that the company's recovery process in the fourth quarter has been suspended, and if 90% of its stores can continue to open, sales volume is expected to decline in the middle and low single digits in the quarter. However, if the government further strengthens the restrictions, the real performance may be further lower than expected. Adidas expects operating profit in the fourth quarter between 100 million and 200 million euros.

Kasper Rosted, chief executive of Adidas, said in a conference call that the group has temporarily closed 8% of its global stores, of which 40% have been closed in the European market. On November 10, Adidas shares fell as much as 6.7%, then rebounded to 281.9 euro / share, down 5.6% on the same day.

The risk of export enterprises is further increasing

Recently, many textile and garment foreign trade factories suddenly burst, it seems that the whole industry is blowing a "spring breeze". Although it is a good thing, the risks behind it can not be ignored.

Due to the second outbreak of the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States, more stringent control measures may be introduced in the future, resulting in a substantial decrease in the number of orders placed by customers, and there is a risk of a substantial reduction in subsequent orders. Moreover, the sudden market, production enterprises may face raw material prices, high labor costs, lack of capacity and other issues.

Industry insiders pointed out that many foreign trade factories have closed down in the epidemic this year, and the economic crisis is highlighted. In addition, the U.S. tariff policy, which may be about to be overturned, makes the whole industry chain panic. At present, the price of raw materials is soaring, which makes many foreign trade factories hard to bear. However, once the commodity price is raised, customers are not willing to accept it. Therefore, many enterprises choose to bear the cost silently. In other words, despite the increase in orders, the company made little profit.

In addition, the epidemic lasted for more than half a year, resulting in the loss of part of the labor force, and now orders are surging, and labor costs are also rising. Relevant data show that many factory labor-oriented jobs are facing "labor shortage".

Lack of capacity is also a headache for many enterprises. However, the factory may not be able to deliver goods on time due to the sharp increase of orders and the shortage of delivery time. At the same time, they are also worried about the quality problems caused by the shortage of orders and the impact on the brand reputation.

At the same time, with the approaching of the peak season at the end of the year, the export orders of foreign trade have increased rapidly, resulting in the sharp increase of international ocean freight, frequent occurrence of explosion and container dumping, and the risk of export enterprises is further increased.