The Market Is Uncertain: Star Fund Managers Are Happy And Worried

After the Spring Festival, star funds generally fell by more than 20%.

Although the current market index has not returned to the position before the Spring Festival, but a group of star fund managers' fund net value has again exceeded the pre Festival high point and reached a new high.

However, there are also a group of star fund managers whose products are still falling sharply.

What makes the performance of fund managers appear obvious differentiation in the new round of market?

A shares repeat last year's "roller coaster"

This year, a shares once again demonstrated the "roller coaster" market under the epidemic situation last year.

This year, a shares can be divided into three market trends.

The first stage is before the Spring Festival (2021-1-1 to 2021-2-10) A-shares are booming.

From the beginning of the year to the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen composite index, gem index and Kechuang 50 index increased by 5.24%, 10.31%, 15.09% and 3.16% respectively.

At this stage, Hong Kong stocks and A-shares were the world's "bulls". Shenzhen Composite Index and hang seng index both ranked first among the 16 major global stock indexes with an increase of 10.31%, while the gem even beat the two Champions by 15.09%.

At this time, the performance of equity funds was very good. Due to the rise of fund group stocks, the funds managed by star fund managers soared and were warmly pursued by the foundation people.

Before the Spring Festival, the average return of partial stock hybrid funds was 11.30%. Among them, star fund managers performed better. For example, Zhang Kun's e fund blue chip collection rose by 23.12%, and its scale increased by 20.3 billion yuan in the first quarter; Liu Yanchun's Jingshun Great Wall Dingyi rose 18.06%, and its scale increased by 6.2 billion yuan in the first quarter.

The second stage is after the Spring Festival (2021-2-18 to 2021-3-15) A-share slump stage.

Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen composite index, gem index and Kechuang 50 index fell by 6.43%, 15.30%, 22.55% and 14.87% respectively.

At this stage, A-share "bear" is the world's largest, giving up all the gains at the beginning of this year. At the beginning of the year, you can go up and fall back. Among the 16 major global stock indexes, the Shenzhen composite index was the bottom-15.30%, the Hang Seng index was - 7.24%, and the Shanghai composite index was - 6.43%.

The growth enterprise market index is - 22.55%, which is far more than - 15.30% of the declining champion Shenzhen composite index, while the Kechuang 50 Index - 14.87% is almost the same as the Shenzhen composite index.

At this stage, the biggest decline was in core stocks, white horse stocks, various "Mao" and other fund "group stocks", which led to a collective collapse of funds, especially star funds, which basically fell by more than 20%, far exceeding the overall market.

From the perspective of active equity funds, during this period, the average return of partial stock hybrid funds was - 14.45%.

The third stage is the rebound of a shares since March 16 (2021-3-16 to 2021-6-17). On the whole, it was horizontal oscillation in March and April, and it recovered significantly in May.

Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen composite index, gem index and Kechuang 50 index increased by 3.09%, 7.04%, 20.60% and 20.44% respectively.

At this stage, the global stock market performance is very good, A-share rebound is moderate. Among the 16 major global stock indexes, Shenzhen composite index ranked seventh and Shanghai composite index ranked 14th.

But at this stage, gem index and Kechuang 50 Index performed well in the global stock index with an increase of more than 20%.

Generally speaking, despite the latest round of A-share rebound, the three A-share indexes have not yet returned to their high points before the Spring Festival. At the close of June 17, the Shanghai Composite Index 3525 points, which is more than 200 points away from the February high of 3731 points, fell by 3.54% from February 18 to June 17. However, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index decreased by 9.33% and 6.60% compared with those before the Spring Festival. However, the Kechuang 50 index has increased by 2.54% compared with before the Spring Festival.

Differentiation is related to structure and position

At the stage of A-share's decline to rebound, although the market index has not returned to the high level before the Spring Festival, the star fund has appeared more obvious differentiation, some of which have returned to the high level before the Spring Festival, or even set a new high; And some star funds still fell a lot.

At this stage, a number of Pro cyclical index funds, not only did not fall, but rose sharply.

From February 18 to June 16, the fund net value performance, a large number of investment in coal, oil, steel and other pro cyclical resource stocks hit a new high. For example, Cathay Pacific China Securities coal ETF link a rose 35.12%; Rich country, China Merchants, Zhongrong's coal index fund also rose more than 33%.

While the oil and gas QDII funds invested overseas by GF, Huabao and Tianhong increased by more than 30%; Cathay Pacific, Penghua and other steel theme funds rose more than 20%.

During the same period, many star fund managers' products have also reached a new high.

Wind data shows that among the active equity funds with a scale of more than 2 billion yuan and established before 2021 (including common stock funds, partial stock mixed funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced hybrid funds), 36 (A / C class is calculated separately) had higher net reversion value on June 16 than on February 10.

Among them, the value of GF managed by Lin Yingrui is 21.99%, that of Qiu Dongrong's Zhonggeng small cap is 18.69%, and that of Lu Bin's HSBC Jinxin dynamic strategy a is 10.27%.

There are also a number of top star fund managers who have made good profits, such as Zhao Yi, the champion fund manager who won the top four fund returns last year, and the Agricultural Bank of China Huili's new energy industry managed 5.19%; The new energy industry income of Xinda Aoyin managed by Feng Mingyuan, who is famous for new energy investment, is 5.09%; Cao Mingchang, who is famous for his undervalued investment, found that a's return was 3.79%.

It is worth noting that in the new round of rebound market, there has been a style change, the rise of Pro cyclical, new energy, technology and other themes. During the same period, this kind of theme fund also won.

For example, since the Spring Festival, the most profitable active management fund, GF managed by Lin Yingrui, leads a in value, with a return of 21.99%. Among the top ten heavy positions of the fund, there are many coal stocks and resource stocks, such as China coal energy, Yanzhou Coal Industry Co., Ltd., China Coal Energy Co., Ltd., Shenhuo Co., Ltd., and Western Mining Co., Ltd.

Zhao Yi and Feng Mingyuan mainly invest in new energy and automobile industry chain.

At the same time, since the Spring Festival in February, there are also many funds with a large decline. For example, many QDII funds investing in overseas Internet stocks have fallen more than 25%.

At the same time, the decline of a large number of star fund managers since the Spring Festival is still very large. For example, from February 18 to June 16, the growth of Jingshun Great Wall Jiying managed by Liu Yanchun dropped by 23.18% in two years, and the small and medium cap of e-fangda managed by Zhang Kun fell by 17.86%.

In fact, Zhang Kun and Liu Yanchun, the two "top 100 billion" star fund managers, have been heavily invested in liquor stocks, and their positions have been very heavy.

In this regard, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said, "during this period of time, the net worth of some star funds has declined, and there are also a number of new highs, mainly related to the structure and position of positions."

In fact, Cinda securities also believes that the impact of style rotation on product returns in A-share market is far greater than that of long-term stock selection. According to Cinda securities research, in the latest week (June 7-11), equity funds continued to increase TMT positions and reduce positions for consumption.

Yang Delong believes that investors should choose long-term stable, excellent funds, not excessive pursuit of short-term performance.

"At this stage, it is suggested that investors can lay out these high-quality funds on a bargain. It is expected that the market will have a good rise before the end of this year." Yang Delong said.