Prospect Of Cotton Price At Home And Abroad

 

In the international cotton market, up to now, the budding rate of new cotton in the United States has reached 93%, and the proportion of good seedlings has continued to increase; In India, 92% of the new cotton planting has been completed; The cotton harvest in Brazil has exceeded 60%. The main variable at present is the weather conditions. In recent years, the continuous shortage of shipping containers, especially the accumulation of goods in some ports in Europe and the United States, has passively delayed the delivery and payment collection period of textile services, and the contract risk has increased accordingly. The consumption of terminal textile clothing decreased. In July, the retail sales of clothing and accessories stores in the United States decreased by 2.59% month on month. In August, the consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States dropped sharply, from 81.2 to 70.2, a new low since 2011.

 

To sum up, with the continuous fermentation of delta virus, the short-term demand is expected to weaken, and the risk aversion sentiment in the international financial market will increase, so as to guard against the weakening of international cotton price margin.

 

Domestic new cotton picking is approaching, the market wait and see mood warming up. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the growth rate of some major indicators in July dropped slightly. The added value of the national textile industry above designated size decreased by 1% year-on-year, and the textile and clothing industry increased by 8.1% year-on-year.

 

The recent meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission pointed out that we should do a good job in preventing and resolving major financial risks.

 

In terms of domestic cotton market, Xinjiang's new cotton is growing normally and is about to enter the boll opening period. Cotton enterprises' maintenance is gradually completed to welcome the purchase of new cotton. With the callback of cotton price after the record high, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts accelerated to decline. As of August 20, the number of registered warehouse receipts of Zheng cotton was 419000 tons, down 35000 tons compared with last week.

 

According to the latest data of China Cotton Association, at the end of July, the total turnover inventory of cotton in China was about 1.731 million tons, a decrease of 468000 tons on a month on month basis, lower than 260700 tons in the same period last year. Some enterprises are still in the early stage of production orders, and some textile and clothing enterprises in Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and other light textile markets have reported that Christmas and Easter orders in developed countries such as Europe and the United States have been issued ahead of schedule in order to ensure timely shipment and delivery. If the epidemic continues, the textile and clothing orders in the fourth quarter may be lower than expected.

 

Next week, the picking time of new cotton is approaching, and the market is waiting for the scale to rise.