National Bureau Of Statistics: CPI Continued To Rise Month On Month In January, And The Decline Of PPI Narrowed

——Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets CPI and PPI data in January 2024

The National Bureau of Statistics today released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) data for January 2024. Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this.

1、 CPI rose for two consecutive months month on month

In January, affected by the festival effect, the consumption demand of residents continued to increase, and the national CPI rose 0.3% month on month, rising for two consecutive months; Affected by the high base of comparison of the wrong month of the Spring Festival in the same period of last year, it decreased by 0.8% year on year. The core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 0.3% month on month, which is equivalent to the average level of the same period in the past decade; It rose 0.4% year on year, maintaining a moderate rise.

On a month on month basis, CPI rose 0.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month. Among them, the food price rose by 0.4%, 0.5 percentage point lower than that of the previous month, which affected the CPI rise by about 0.08 percentage point. Among the foods, due to the cold wave weather and the approaching Spring Festival, the prices of shrimp and crab, fresh vegetables, potatoes and fresh mushrooms rose by 9.3%, 3.8%, 1.5% and 1.3% respectively, affecting the CPI rise by about 0.12 percentage points in total; The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the prices of eggs, edible oil, fresh fruits and pork dropped by 1.7%, 1.0%, 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Non food prices increased 0.2% from a 0.1% decrease last month, affecting CPI growth by about 0.19 percentage points. Among non food items, the travel demand increased, and the price of air tickets and tourism increased by 12.1% and 4.2% respectively, which affected the CPI increase by about 0.10 percentage points in total; Affected by the return of migrant workers and the increase in service demand before the festival, the prices of domestic service, hairdressing and maternal and infant care services increased by 4.8%, 4.6% and 1.5% respectively; Affected by changes in international oil prices, domestic gasoline prices fell by 1.0%.

On a year-on-year basis, CPI fell by 0.8%, 0.5 percentage point more than that of the previous month. The year-on-year decline was expanded, mainly because the Spring Festival of last year was in January, and the consumption demand increased after the epidemic prevention and control transition in the same period, leading to a higher base year on year. Among them, food prices fell by 5.9%, affecting CPI by about 1.13 percentage points. Among the food products, the prices of pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits dropped by 17.3%, 12.7% and 9.1% respectively, affecting the CPI decline by about 0.78 percentage points in total, accounting for more than 90% of the year-on-year decline in CPI, which is the main factor driving the year-on-year decline in CPI.

Non food prices rose by 0.4%, affecting CPI growth by about 0.32 percentage points. In the non food category, the service price rose by 0.5%, of which the price of domestic service and other household services rose by 3.5% and 2.4% respectively, with both increases expanding; Tourism prices rose by 1.8%, and the increase slowed down; The price of air tickets dropped by 13.6%, with a larger decline. The price of industrial consumer goods increased by 0.1% from a decrease of 0.4% last month, of which the price of energy increased by 0.1% from a decrease of 0.5% last month.

It is estimated that in January, the year-on-year CPI change of - 0.8%, the tail lifting impact is about - 1.1 percentage points; The new impact of price changes this year is about 0.3 percentage points.

2、 The month on month and year-on-year decline of PPI both narrowed

In January, affected by factors such as the fluctuation of international commodity prices and the entry of some domestic industries into the traditional off-season of production, the national PPI fell month on month and year on year, but the decline was narrowed.

On a month on month basis, PPI fell by 0.2%, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 0.2%, and the decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage point; The price of means of living fell by 0.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point. Affected by the fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities in the international market, the prices of domestic oil and natural gas exploitation industry fell by 0.8%, and the prices of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries fell by 1.7%, all of which narrowed; The prices of nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries rose 0.3%, of which the prices of zinc smelting and aluminum smelting rose 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. The demand for steel replenishment before the festival increased, and the price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 0.4%. Heating demand increased in some areas, and the price of coal mining and washing industry rose slightly by 0.1%.

The demand for chemical products, cement and other industrial products is weak. The price of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry fell by 1.1%, and the price of non-metallic mineral products industry fell by 0.6%. The prices of lithium-ion battery manufacturing, computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing fell by 2.6%, 0.3%, and 0.3% respectively.

From a year-on-year perspective, PPI decreased by 2.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 3.0%, with a decrease of 0.3 percentage points; The price of means of living fell by 1.1%, or 0.1 percentage point. Among the main industries, the prices of coal mining and washing industry fell by 16.0%, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry by 6.1%, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industry by 4.4%, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry by 4.2%, computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry by 3.0%. The decline in the above five industries was narrower than that of last month, The total impact on PPI decreased by about 1.47 percentage points year on year, and the downward effect on PPI decreased by 0.28 percentage points compared with the previous month; The prices of non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 8.0% and 2.9% respectively, with a larger decline than that of last month.

The price of oil and natural gas exploitation industry rose 3.4% from a 1.6% drop last month. The price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose 0.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than that of last month.

It is estimated that among the year-on-year changes in PPI of - 2.5% in January, the tail lifting impact is about - 2.3 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year is about - 0.2 percentage points.