CICC: The Possibility Of Implementing The Proactive Fiscal Policy Is High.

Last year, the actual fiscal deficit was 1.8%, not 2.1%, and fiscal policy was actually tight.

In today's financial report, the fiscal deficit in 2014 was actually implemented at 1 trillion and 350 billion and the deficit rate was 2.1%.

But here is the place.

The cost of repayment is 99 billion 300 million yuan, supplemented by the central and local budgetary stabilization fund and the local fiscal expenditure will be 219 billion 520 million yuan in the next year. The two items can not make a real contribution to the economic growth in 2014. Excluding these two expenditures, the actual deficit in 2014 is 1 trillion and 130 billion, the deficit rate is only 1.8%, which is not rising or falling compared with 2013, and the implementation of fiscal policy is tight.

The actual fiscal deficit in 2015 may reach 2.6-2.7%, which is much stronger than that in 2014, which is a powerful guarantee for economic growth.

According to the financial report, the budget deficit rate in 2015 was 2.3% (budget deficit of 1 trillion and 620 billion yuan), but it should be noted that if we add 100 billion yuan from the central budget stabilization fund, plus 112 billion 400 million yuan in the previous year, the actual deficit is 1 trillion and 830 billion yuan, and the deficit is about 2.6-2.7%.

During his reply to the press conference, Minister Lou Jiwei also made it clear that the deficit rate in the report is still 2.3%.

The current balance of payments is 2.7%, which is relatively large.

It will play an important role in supporting economic development and resisting downward pressure.

Local government debt risk is controllable, there are solutions, but the final solution takes time.

First, from the minister's reply, we can see that the size of the debt that is directly repaid is not higher than the 10 trillion and 900 billion figure released by the Audit Commission in 2013. However, the phenomenon of intentional multi reporting by local governments may also be contained. The floor statement is that "after the completion of the land government's report, we will review it again, and the process of audit is not over yet."

Second, we must open the front door and block the back door, while preventing systemic risks.

In 2015, the local debt budget was 600 billion yuan (including 100 billion yuan special debt), an increase of 50% over the 400 billion yuan in 2014.

In addition, "prevent the emergence of

"This means that the reform will proceed steadily, and the possibility of huge economic fluctuations will be small.

Third, there are solutions.

There is a stable cash flow debt into the PPP mode or the payment of debt; for the purely public welfare local government debt, by replacing the original platform debt by issuing bonds, the interest rate can be reduced.

In addition, according to the contract principle, the loan contract can not be abolished by the historical debts formed by bank loans.

It is possible that the two sides will negotiate and carry out some debt restructuring and take some pitional measures to solve them gradually.

Approved 3 trillion quota replacement of stock debt and other measures.

Tax reform is going on.

In his reply to reporters' questions, many of China's tax reform is expected to be announced in these areas.

It includes standardized management of preferential tax policies, especially regional preferential tax policies. In 2015, the reform of "camp to increase" was completed in an all-round way, that is, the business tax of life service industry, finance industry, construction industry and real estate industry was changed to VAT, and personal income tax reform.

To sum up, CICC believes that the positive fiscal policy in 2015 is an important point of view, and the possibility of steady implementation is high, which will form a support for stabilizing economic growth.

The local government debt problem may have been properly dealt with by the Ministry of finance, and the possibility of systemic risk is low.