Cotton Industry Outlook In 2016

In 2016, the eighth year of the global financial crisis, the global economic recovery is still weak. The uncertainty of commodities and oil prices, geopolitical risks and other uncertainties, IMF1 forecast 2016 global economic growth rate of 3.4%, down 0.2 percentage points compared with October 2015, the World Bank forecast 2.9% in January, 0.4 percentage points lower than the January 2015 forecast. In 2016, the global economy entered a mediocre period (Lagarde). It is predicted that cotton textile consumption will be weak in 2016. Restorability "Growth and production" showed a "diminishing" trend, structural reduction and competitive reduction still exist, but the cotton planting area in the mainland has also been "bottom".

China's cotton has evolved from "temporary purchase and storage" and "target price" to "foreign goods entering the market and storing domestic goods" into "three volume increase". At present, all parties believe that the total inventory of raw cotton in the country is between 1100~1300 tons. According to the loss and financial cost 2000 yuan / ton, the annual loss is about about 20000000000 Yuan and the financial burden is heavier. Therefore, digestion inventory will be one of the tasks in the next few years. At present, the "three volume increase" has further evolved into a serious shortage of "high-grade cotton" in China and a serious surplus of "low grade cotton". Cotton spinning enterprise The use of imported American cotton is a footnote to this problem. The short exposure of quality is enough to show that the cotton industry is in urgent need of transformation, upgrading, quality and efficiency.

Emphasizing the upgrading of quality is not only the need for transformation and upgrading of the national economy, the transformation and upgrading of the cotton textile industry to the new high-end and the consumption of large cotton stocks, but also the need for the deep integration of "one belt and one road". In the countries along the belt, there are cheaper cotton fabrics with lower quality and lower quality and lower prices for procurement. In December 2015, the WTO ministerial conference established that the developed countries should cancel export cotton subsidies and the least developed countries in Africa would export cotton to the developed countries. tariff The quota free policy is needed, and it is a long-term measure to deal with the high cost of domestic cotton.

Therefore, upgrading quality is not short-term behavior. It is based on the domestic and international market, based on supply side and demand side's long-term behavior. Quality improvement is based on long-term guarantee, and meets the rigid growth of quality and quantity demand. To this end, the industry should establish no quality, no benefits and competitiveness, seize the quality problem, seize the terminal consumer demand, seize the core competitiveness of cotton planting industry one of the core issues (another issue is cotton planting efficiency), seize the quality can effectively guarantee that the big cotton industry will not be defeated in the competition. In 13th Five-Year, we should change from simply seeking to increase yield per unit area to comprehensively improving genetic quality, production quality, cotton ginning quality, quality inspection and economic efficiency, and meet the new demand of textile changing from low to medium to high end.